Ohio State v Texas
Women's · Sunday, November 22, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at Dickies Arena. Ohio State AP 17, our rank 12 · 3-1; Texas AP 6, our rank 5 · 3-0.
Who will win Ohio State vs Texas?
The model gives Texas a 65% chance to beat Ohio State, with a projected score of Texas 74, Ohio State 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | |||||
| BookerF · 27 min | 16.7 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 15+ 59% | |
| ClarkG · 26 min | 11.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 10+ 56% | |
| CunninghamF · 23 min | 10.3 | 6.6 | 0.4 | 10+ 51% | |
| VannG · 26 min | 7.8 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 10+ 32% | |
| Ohio State | |||||
| CambridgeG · 31 min | 18.9 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 20+ 44% | |
| LemmilaC · 26 min | 10.5 | 6.6 | 1.6 | 10+ 52% | |
| WatsonG · 30 min | 9.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 10+ 46% | |
| CambridgeG · 31 min | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 10+ 45% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Madison Booker: Ohio State 62%Texas 38%
The white mark is the call with her: Texas 65%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Texas without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | ||||
| Madison Booker | 8.5 | 38% | −27 | 74–70 |
| Breya Cunningham | 6.2 | 45% | −20 | 73–71 |
| Bryanna Preston | 6.1 | 46% | −19 | 72–71 |
| Zya Vann | 4.9 | 49% | −16 | 72–72 |
| Ohio State | ||||
| Jaloni Cambridge | 7.0 | 83% | +18 | 66–78 |
| Kennedy Cambridge | 6.0 | 81% | +16 | 66–77 |
| Elsa Lemmila | 5.2 | 79% | +14 | 67–77 |
| Ava Watson | 4.4 | 77% | +12 | 67–76 |
Change is in Texas's win chance, in points. Scores read Ohio State, then Texas. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Ohio State 3-1WWWL
- Nov 12L 55-87vs UConnDidn't cover +9.5 · Under 147.5
- Nov 8W 91-57vs Mercyhurst
- Nov 5W 103-36vs C MichiganCovered −45.5 · Under 143.5
- Nov 2W 81-34vs UIC
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 82.5 and allowing 53.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Texas 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 93-63vs S Dakota StCovered −27.5 · Over 137.5
- Nov 7W 91-29vs N ColoradoCovered −34.5 · Under 132.5
- Nov 4W 85-65vs FDU
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 89.7 and allowing 52.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Ohio State | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 110.2 22nd | 116.3 7th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 75.3 6th | 75.8 8th |
| Possessions a game | 74.7 18th | 72.1 164th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.3% 76th | 48.3% 39th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.0% 149th | 47.5% 296th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.9% 278th | 20.0% 4th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 37.8% 18th | 35.2% 70th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 160th | 0.20 240th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Ohio State 33, Texas 35
- First-half margin
- Texas by 2.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.1
- Projected second half
- Ohio State 37, Texas 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Ohio State, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 48.8 scored, 23.5 allowed
- Texas, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 46.0 scored, 22.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Ohio State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy CambridgeG | 31 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Jaloni CambridgeG | 31 | 18.9 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 |
| 20+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Ava WatsonG | 30 | 9.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Elsa LemmilaC | 26 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 7+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Kylee KittsG | 25 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 6+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Adriana DiazF | 18 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Bryn MartinG | 17 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 27% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Sydney MobleyF | 12 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 41% | |||||
Texas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison BookerF | 27 | 16.7 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Bryanna PrestonG | 27 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Zya VannG | 26 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Jayda ClarkG | 26 | 11.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Breya CunninghamF | 23 | 10.3 | 6.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 7+ reb 46% | |||||
| Isi EtuteF | 20 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Addison BjornG | 16 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Brihanna CrittendonF | 12 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 43% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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