Who will win Stanford vs Portland?
The model gives Portland a 51% chance to beat Stanford, with a projected score of Portland 69, Stanford 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Portland | |||||
| AnanievG · 26 min | 9.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 10+ 45% | |
| MogelG · 23 min | 9.4 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 10+ 44% | |
| ManganG · 22 min | 9.0 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 10+ 41% | |
| SpearF · 20 min | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 10+ 32% | |
 Stanford | |||||
| SwainG · 38 min | 17.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 20+ 38% | |
| EschmeyerF · 28 min | 9.0 | 6.3 | 0.7 | 10+ 41% | |
| EzikeF · 23 min | 8.2 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 10+ 35% | |
| IjiwoyeG · 36 min | 7.9 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 10+ 32% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Dyani Ananiev: Stanford 56%Portland 44%
The white mark is the call with her: Portland 51%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Portland without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland | ||||
| Dyani Ananiev | 2.2 | 44% | −7 | 69–68 |
| Julia Dalan | 1.7 | 45% | −6 | 69–68 |
| Lainey Spear | 1.4 | 46% | −5 | 69–68 |
| Florence Dallow | 1.4 | 47% | −4 | 69–68 |
| Stanford | ||||
| Alexandra Eschmeyer | 3.5 | 64% | +13 | 67–71 |
| Hailee Swain | 2.9 | 62% | +11 | 67–70 |
| Ines Sotelo Miguez | 2.9 | 62% | +11 | 67–70 |
| Shay Ijiwoye | 2.2 | 60% | +9 | 67–70 |
Change is in Portland's win chance, in points. Scores read Stanford, then Portland. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Stanford 2-1LWW
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 74.3 and allowing 66.0
Portland 2-2WLLW
- Nov 11W 90-33vs Warner Pacific
- Nov 8L 65-75at Montana St
- Nov 5L 64-74at BYU
- Nov 2W 107-29vs Willamette
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 81.5 and allowing 52.8
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Stanford | Portland | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.2 79th | 96.4 103rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 85.8 59th | 88.0 75th |
| Possessions a game | 73.0 96th | 73.6 65th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.9% 25th | 45.8% 155th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.1% 276th | 43.1% 45th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.9% 342nd | 24.3% 252nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.8% 176th | 34.4% 101st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 235th | 0.23 90th |
The widest gap: Stanford's defense (59th) against Portland's offense (103rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Stanford 32, Portland 33
- First-half margin
- Portland by 0.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.1
- Projected second half
- Stanford 36, Portland 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Stanford, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 36.0 scored, 33.3 allowed
- Portland, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 45.0 scored, 25.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Stanford
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hailee SwainG | 38 | 17.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 20+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Shay IjiwoyeG | 36 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ ast 55% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Ines Sotelo MiguezF | 28 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Alexandra EschmeyerF | 28 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Nora EzikeF | 23 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Charlotte TuhyF | 23 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 8+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Ilse de VriesF | 12 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Portland
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dyani AnanievG | 26 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Rhyan MogelG | 23 | 9.4 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Sara ManganG | 22 | 9.0 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 2+ ast 45% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Lainey SpearF | 20 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Florence DallowG | 20 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Julia DalanC | 20 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 7+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Tiffany BarbosaG | 14 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Goundo Diakite BayoF | 13 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 52% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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