Who will win Missouri vs Kansas St?
The model gives Missouri a 56% chance to beat Kansas State, with a projected score of Missouri 69, Kansas St 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Missouri | |||||
| SlaughterG · 29 min | 16.0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 15+ 55% | |
| MathurinG · 28 min | 11.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 10+ 60% | |
| CaffeyG · 27 min | 9.6 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 10+ 45% | |
| WelchG · 24 min | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 10+ 36% | |
 Kansas St | |||||
| SidesG · 35 min | 12.2 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 10+ 64% | |
| ClaessensF · 35 min | 11.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 10+ 57% | |
| NdeF · 29 min | 10.3 | 7.0 | 1.7 | 10+ 51% | |
| TampakouC · 16 min | 6.7 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 5+ 63% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without McKenzie Mathurin: Missouri 42%Kansas St 58%
The white mark is the call with her: Missouri 56%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Missouri without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | ||||
| McKenzie Mathurin | 4.3 | 42% | −14 | 66–69 |
| Grace Slaughter | 3.9 | 43% | −13 | 67–69 |
| Nevaeh Caffey | 2.9 | 46% | −10 | 67–68 |
| Tanyuel Welch | 2.4 | 48% | −8 | 67–68 |
| Kansas St | ||||
| Taryn Sides | 4.7 | 71% | +15 | 71–64 |
| Gina Garcia | 3.5 | 67% | +11 | 70–65 |
| Tea Cleante | 1.8 | 62% | +6 | 69–66 |
| Nastja Claessens | 1.7 | 62% | +6 | 69–66 |
Change is in Missouri's win chance, in points. Scores read Missouri, then Kansas St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Missouri 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 103-59vs UT Martin
- Nov 9W 106-59vs Tennessee Tech
- Nov 6W 73-50at Little Rock
- Nov 2W 91-88vs Howard
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 93.2 and allowing 64.0
Kansas St 4-0WWWW
- Nov 10W 67-62vs Montana
- Nov 8W 68-39vs UT Rio Grande
- Nov 5W 61-47vs S Indiana
- Nov 2W 61-41vs Wichita St
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 64.2 and allowing 47.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Missouri | Kansas St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.0 51st | 94.7 119th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 88.0 75th | 81.9 35th |
| Possessions a game | 74.4 27th | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.8% 103rd | 43.5% 300th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.1% 93rd | 42.4% 24th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.6% 38th | 22.3% 81st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.3% 65th | 29.0% 345th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 297th | 0.19 314th |
The widest gap: Missouri's defense (75th) against Kansas St's offense (119th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Missouri 33, Kansas St 32
- First-half margin
- Missouri by 1.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.2
- Projected second half
- Missouri 36, Kansas St 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Missouri, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 42.2 scored, 30.0 allowed
- Kansas St, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 31.2 scored, 22.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Missouri
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace SlaughterG | 29 | 16.0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| McKenzie MathurinG | 28 | 11.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Nevaeh CaffeyG | 27 | 9.6 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Tanyuel WelchG | 24 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Khloe FordF | 23 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 7+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Natalya HodgeG | 22 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Ellie MullerF | 16 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Abbey SchreackeG | 11 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 29% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
Kansas St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taryn SidesG | 35 | 12.2 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 43% | |||||
| Nastja ClaessensF | 35 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Gina GarciaG | 32 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 42% · 5+ ast 52% | |||||
| Shaila NdeF | 29 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 7+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Tea CleanteG | 20 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ ast 43% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Mikayla ParksG | 19 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Tzoana TampakouC | 16 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 49% | |||||
| Cristina OsazuwaF | 13 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 42% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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