Who will win Minnesota vs Kansas St?
The model gives Minnesota a 91% chance to beat Kansas State, with a projected score of Minnesota 76, Kansas St 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Minnesota | |||||
| GrocholskiG · 29 min | 14.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 15+ 44% | |
| MerkleC · 15 min | 11.4 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 10+ 58% | |
| HarmonG · 25 min | 10.7 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 10+ 53% | |
| BraunG · 29 min | 10.5 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 10+ 52% | |
 Kansas St | |||||
| SidesG · 33 min | 10.4 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 10+ 51% | |
| ClaessensF · 32 min | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 10+ 45% | |
| NdeF · 28 min | 8.9 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 10+ 40% | |
| TampakouC · 17 min | 6.4 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Grace Grocholski: Minnesota 80%Kansas St 20%
The white mark is the call with her: Minnesota 91%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Minnesota without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | ||||
| Grace Grocholski | 6.6 | 80% | −11 | 73–62 |
| Mara Braun | 5.8 | 81% | −10 | 73–62 |
| Gracie Merkle | 3.7 | 86% | −5 | 74–61 |
| Leah Harmon | 3.4 | 86% | −5 | 74–61 |
| Kansas St | ||||
| Taryn Sides | 4.7 | 96% | +5 | 78–57 |
| Gina Garcia | 3.5 | 95% | +4 | 78–57 |
| Tea Cleante | 1.8 | 93% | +2 | 77–58 |
| Nastja Claessens | 1.7 | 93% | +2 | 77–58 |
Change is in Minnesota's win chance, in points. Scores read Minnesota, then Kansas St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Minnesota 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 86-47vs Southern
- Nov 7W 87-79at MarquetteDidn't cover −12.5 · Over 134.5
- Nov 2W 82-62vs Harvard
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 85.0 and allowing 62.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Kansas St 4-0WWWW
- Nov 10W 67-62vs Montana
- Nov 8W 68-39vs UT Rio Grande
- Nov 5W 61-47vs S Indiana
- Nov 2W 61-41vs Wichita St
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 64.2 and allowing 47.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Minnesota | Kansas St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 116.4 6th | 94.7 119th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 82.5 40th | 81.9 35th |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 272nd | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.5% 36th | 43.5% 300th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.7% 254th | 42.4% 24th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.3% 171st | 22.3% 81st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 40.2% 3rd | 29.0% 345th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 39th | 0.19 314th |
The widest gap: Minnesota's defense (40th) against Kansas St's offense (119th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Minnesota 37, Kansas St 27
- First-half margin
- Minnesota by 9.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.1
- Projected second half
- Minnesota 39, Kansas St 32
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Minnesota, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 39.3 scored, 29.0 allowed
- Kansas St, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 31.2 scored, 22.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Minnesota
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace GrocholskiG | 29 | 14.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Mara BraunG | 29 | 10.5 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Natalie KussowG | 26 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Leah HarmonG | 25 | 10.7 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Tayla ThomasF | 22 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 8+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Tori OehrleinG | 16 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Gracie MerkleC | 15 | 11.4 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Kennedy KlickG | 12 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 2+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 31% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
Kansas St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taryn SidesG | 33 | 10.4 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ ast 49% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Nastja ClaessensF | 32 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Gina GarciaG | 31 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 53% | |||||
| Shaila NdeF | 28 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Tea CleanteG | 20 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ ast 35% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Mikayla ParksG | 19 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Tzoana TampakouC | 17 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 46% | |||||
| Cristina OsazuwaF | 14 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 58% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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