Who won Harvard vs Minnesota?
Final: Minnesota 82, Harvard 62. Before tip-off the model gave Minnesota a 91% chance to win, with a projected margin of 18.9 points for Minnesota. Gracie Merkle scored 22 for Minnesota; Sam Wills had 20 for Harvard.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Grace Grocholski: Harvard 19%Minnesota 81%
The white mark is the call with her: Minnesota 91%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Minnesota without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Minnesota | ||||
| Grace Grocholski | 6.6 | 81% | −10 | 72–84 |
| Mara Braun | 5.8 | 83% | −8 | 72–85 |
| Gracie Merkle | 3.7 | 86% | −5 | 71–86 |
| Leah Harmon | 3.4 | 87% | −4 | 71–86 |
 Harvard | ||||
| Karlee White | 4.6 | 96% | +5 | 67–90 |
| Olivia Jones | 3.6 | 95% | +4 | 67–89 |
| Abigail Wright | 3.5 | 95% | +4 | 67–89 |
| Mary Hollensteiner | 2.2 | 94% | +3 | 68–89 |
Change is in Minnesota's win chance, in points. Scores read Harvard, then Minnesota. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…
Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Harvard
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Minnesota
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Harvard | Minnesota | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.6 45th | 116.4 6th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 83.7 52nd | 82.5 40th |
| Possessions a game | 70.5 318th | 71.1 272nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.1% 135th | 48.5% 36th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.2% 51st | 46.7% 254th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.0% 58th | 23.3% 171st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 37.5% 25th | 40.2% 3rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 123rd | 0.24 39th |
The widest gap: Minnesota's offense (6th) against Harvard's defense (52nd), of 363 teams.
First half
Minnesota led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 3.9 points and the total by 7.2.
- At halftime
- Harvard 30, Minnesota 37
- Projected halftime score
- Harvard 32, Minnesota 43
- First-half margin
- Minnesota by 10.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Harvard
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlee WhiteG | 36 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Lydia ChatiraG | 33 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Abigail WrightF | 24 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| Olivia JonesG | 20 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| Sam WillsF | 20 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Mary HollensteinerG | 19 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Asani CeaserF | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alayna RoccoG | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Maya NaharC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Minnesota
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace GrocholskiG | 34 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| Natalie KussowG | 32 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Mara BraunG | 31 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Leah HarmonG | 30 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tayla ThomasF | 21 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Gracie MerkleC | 18 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Tori OehrleinG | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Makena ChristianG | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kennedy KlickG | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |