Louisiana Tech 61, Toledo 57
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Savage Arena. Louisiana Tech our rank 82 · 4-0; Toledo our rank 124 · 1-2.
Who won Louisiana Tech vs Toledo?
Final: Louisiana Tech 61, Toledo 57. Before tip-off the model gave Louisiana Tech a 46% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 1.3 points for Toledo. Jordan Marshall scored 14 for Louisiana Tech; Ella Weaver had 14 for Toledo.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Jyah LoVett: Louisiana Tech 53%Toledo 47%
The white mark is the call with her: Toledo 54%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Toledo without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | ||||
| Jyah LoVett | 2.0 | 47% | −7 | 79–78 |
| Reagan Wilson | 1.6 | 49% | −5 | 79–78 |
| Evalyse Cole | 1.6 | 49% | −5 | 79–78 |
| Kendall Carruthers | 1.6 | 49% | −5 | 79–78 |
| Louisiana Tech | ||||
| Jordan Marshall | 3.0 | 66% | +12 | 76–81 |
| Kaleigh Thompson | 2.2 | 63% | +9 | 77–80 |
| Alexia Weaver | 2.2 | 63% | +9 | 77–80 |
| Joy Madison-Key | 1.8 | 61% | +7 | 77–80 |
Change is in Toledo's win chance, in points. Scores read Louisiana Tech, then Toledo. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Louisiana Tech
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Toledo
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Louisiana Tech | Toledo | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.5 64th | 90.1 176th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 91.4 126th | 87.5 71st |
| Possessions a game | 70.6 312th | 72.2 156th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.2% 45th | 44.0% 275th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.4% 116th | 44.8% 142nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.2% 73rd | 23.8% 203rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.4% 108th | 30.1% 310th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 115th | 0.16 359th |
The widest gap: Louisiana Tech's defense (126th) against Toledo's offense (176th), of 363 teams.
First half
Louisiana Tech led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 6.7 points and the total by 20.5.
- At halftime
- Louisiana Tech 30, Toledo 24
- Projected halftime score
- Louisiana Tech 37, Toledo 38
- First-half margin
- Toledo by 0.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Louisiana Tech
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexia WeaverG | 37 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Brittani WellsG | 32 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kaleigh ThompsonG | 32 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 |
| Jordan MarshallF | 30 | 14 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| Alana ObianozieG | 24 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Joy Madison-KeyG | 22 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| E'Marriha JohnsonF | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Hillary DawsonF | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Pressley PowellG | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Toledo
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella WeaverG | 33 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Kendall CarruthersG | 31 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| Natiah NelsonG | 27 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Jyah LoVettG | 26 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Evalyse ColeF | 25 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 |
| Reagan WilsonG | 20 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Destiny RobinsonG | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Judit Oliva FernandezF | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kiera EdmondsF | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |