Valparaiso at Toledo
Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Savage Arena. Valparaiso our rank 326 · 1-2; Toledo our rank 124 · 1-2.
Who will win Valparaiso vs Toledo?
The model gives Toledo a 97% chance to beat Valparaiso, with a projected score of Toledo 76, Valparaiso 52.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | |||||
| CarruthersG · 29 min | 14.1 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 15+ 44% | |
| LoVettG · 27 min | 11.3 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 10+ 57% | |
| WeaverG · 32 min | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 10+ 45% | |
| ColeF · 25 min | 9.3 | 7.1 | 1.7 | 10+ 43% | |
| Valparaiso | |||||
| von SchlegellG · 26 min | 8.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 10+ 36% | |
| AllenF · 21 min | 6.7 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 5+ 63% | |
| NoguésG · 24 min | 6.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 5+ 57% | |
| Igbinedion OmoruyiC · 20 min | 6.1 | 4.2 | 0.3 | 5+ 57% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jyah LoVett: Valparaiso 4%Toledo 96%
The white mark is the call with her: Toledo 97%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Toledo without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | ||||
| Jyah LoVett | 2.0 | 96% | −1 | 53–75 |
| Reagan Wilson | 1.6 | 96% | −1 | 52–75 |
| Evalyse Cole | 1.6 | 96% | −1 | 52–75 |
| Kendall Carruthers | 1.6 | 96% | −1 | 52–75 |
Change is in Toledo's win chance, in points. Scores read Valparaiso, then Toledo. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Valparaiso 1-2LLW
- Nov 10W 89-47vs Culver Stockton
- Nov 7L 63-67vs Detroit Mercy
- Nov 3L 44-98at Michigan St
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 65.3 and allowing 70.7
Toledo 1-2LLW
- Nov 10W 64-60vs Youngstown St
- Nov 7L 64-72vs Michigan St
- Nov 2L 57-61vs Louisiana Tech
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 61.7 and allowing 64.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Valparaiso | Toledo | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 78.3 331st | 90.1 176th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.0 279th | 87.5 71st |
| Possessions a game | 74.8 16th | 72.2 156th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.5% 329th | 44.0% 275th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.1% 275th | 44.8% 142nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.3% 293rd | 23.8% 203rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.0% 280th | 30.1% 310th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.18 338th | 0.16 359th |
The widest gap: Toledo's defense (71st) against Valparaiso's offense (331st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Valparaiso 23, Toledo 37
- First-half margin
- Toledo by 13.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 60.3
- Projected second half
- Valparaiso 28, Toledo 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 66.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Valparaiso, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 27.0 scored, 31.7 allowed
- Toledo, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 27.3 scored, 29.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Valparaiso
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allia von SchlegellG | 26 | 8.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Maci RhoadesG | 24 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Jana NoguésG | 24 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Denza AllenF | 21 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Osadebamwen Igbinedion OmoruyiC | 20 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 55% | |||||
| Dani GuedetG | 18 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Maddie VejsickyG | 18 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Constanza AravenaG | 16 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
Toledo
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella WeaverG | 32 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Kendall CarruthersG | 29 | 14.1 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 43% · 4+ ast 51% | |||||
| Jyah LoVettG | 27 | 11.3 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Evalyse ColeF | 25 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 7+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Natiah NelsonG | 25 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 70% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Reagan WilsonG | 18 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Destiny RobinsonG | 14 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Kiera EdmondsF | 14 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 45% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…