Toledo at Detroit Mercy
Women's · Thursday, November 19, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Calihan Hall. Toledo our rank 124 · 1-2; Detroit Mercy our rank 276 · 2-2.
Who will win Toledo vs Detroit Mercy?
The model gives Toledo a 81% chance to beat Detroit Mercy, with a projected score of Toledo 70, Detroit Mercy 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | |||||
| CarruthersG · 31 min | 14.0 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 15+ 43% | |
| LoVettG · 28 min | 11.0 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 10+ 55% | |
| WeaverG · 34 min | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 10+ 45% | |
| ColeF · 26 min | 9.0 | 6.9 | 1.5 | 10+ 41% | |
| Detroit Mercy | |||||
| JacksonG · 29 min | 11.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 10+ 56% | |
| LopezG · 28 min | 11.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 10+ 56% | |
| UtomiF · 24 min | 9.2 | 6.2 | 1.0 | 10+ 42% | |
| AndersonG · 24 min | 6.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 5+ 56% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jyah LoVett: Toledo 76%Detroit Mercy 24%
The white mark is the call with her: Toledo 81%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Toledo without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | ||||
| Jyah LoVett | 2.0 | 76% | −5 | 69–60 |
| Reagan Wilson | 1.6 | 77% | −4 | 69–60 |
| Evalyse Cole | 1.6 | 77% | −4 | 69–60 |
| Kendall Carruthers | 1.6 | 77% | −4 | 69–60 |
| Detroit Mercy | ||||
| Stephanie Utomi | 0.5 | 82% | +1 | 70–59 |
Change is in Toledo's win chance, in points. Scores read Toledo, then Detroit Mercy. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Toledo 1-2LLW
- Nov 10W 64-60vs Youngstown St
- Nov 7L 64-72vs Michigan St
- Nov 2L 57-61vs Louisiana Tech
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 61.7 and allowing 64.3
Detroit Mercy 2-2WLWL
- Nov 10L 60-108at Notre Dame
- Nov 7W 67-63at Valparaiso
- Nov 4L 50-84at Illinois
- Nov 2W 94-30vs Michigan Dearborn
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 67.8 and allowing 71.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Toledo | Detroit Mercy | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 90.1 176th | 84.2 270th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 87.5 71st | 99.1 282nd |
| Possessions a game | 72.2 156th | 73.6 65th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.0% 275th | 44.0% 277th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.8% 142nd | 45.9% 204th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.8% 203rd | 22.0% 61st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.1% 310th | 32.3% 203rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.16 359th | 0.23 79th |
The widest gap: Toledo's defense (71st) against Detroit Mercy's offense (270th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Toledo 34, Detroit Mercy 28
- First-half margin
- Toledo by 6.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.4
- Projected second half
- Toledo 36, Detroit Mercy 32
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Toledo, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 27.3 scored, 29.0 allowed
- Detroit Mercy, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 30.0 scored, 34.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Toledo
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella WeaverG | 34 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Kendall CarruthersG | 31 | 14.0 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 43% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Jyah LoVettG | 28 | 11.0 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Evalyse ColeF | 26 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 7+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Natiah NelsonG | 26 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Reagan WilsonG | 18 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Destiny RobinsonG | 13 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Kiera EdmondsF | 13 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 53% | |||||
Detroit Mercy
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makayla JacksonG | 29 | 11.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Paula LopezG | 28 | 11.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Stephanie UtomiF | 24 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Maya AndersonG | 24 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Naïma DiawaraF | 19 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Anna LassanF | 16 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| Marie OutlayG | 16 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Addisen MastrianoC | 13 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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