Montana St at Iowa
Women's · Thursday, November 19, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Montana St our rank 64 · 2-0; Iowa AP 10, our rank 11 · 3-1.
Who will win Montana St vs Iowa?
The model gives Iowa a 96% chance to beat Montana State, with a projected score of Iowa 79, Montana St 56.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | |||||
| CarnegieG · 27 min | 15.8 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 15+ 54% | |
| HeidenC · 23 min | 14.9 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 15+ 48% | |
| WrightG · 29 min | 11.7 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 10+ 60% | |
| WoliczkoF · 24 min | 11.3 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 10+ 58% | |
| Montana St | |||||
| HarrisF · 25 min | 13.1 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 15+ 37% | |
| ChirrickG · 28 min | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 10+ 48% | |
| EricksonF · 17 min | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 5+ 59% | |
| PhilipG · 23 min | 5.9 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 5+ 55% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ava Heiden: Montana St 9%Iowa 91%
The white mark is the call with her: Iowa 96%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Iowa without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | ||||
| Ava Heiden | 5.8 | 91% | −5 | 59–76 |
| Dani Carnegie | 5.3 | 91% | −5 | 59–77 |
| Chazadi Wright | 5.1 | 91% | −5 | 59–77 |
| Amari Whiting | 3.6 | 93% | −3 | 58–77 |
| Montana St | ||||
| Taylee Chirrick | 4.8 | 98% | +2 | 54–82 |
| Addison Harris | 2.7 | 98% | +2 | 55–81 |
| Ella Johnson | 2.5 | 97% | +1 | 55–80 |
| Jamison Philip | 1.9 | 97% | +1 | 55–80 |
Change is in Iowa's win chance, in points. Scores read Montana St, then Iowa. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Montana St 2-0WW
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 78.5 and allowing 51.5
Iowa 3-1WWLW
- Nov 12W 78-40vs Northern IowaCovered −32.5 · Under 135.5
- Nov 8L 79-91at UConnCovered +13.5 · Over 138.5
- Nov 5W 80-39vs E Illinois
- Nov 2W 73-45vs Towson
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 77.5 and allowing 53.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Montana St | Iowa | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.4 95th | 111.6 16th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 83.2 47th | 76.1 9th |
| Possessions a game | 74.1 43rd | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.6% 238th | 49.8% 14th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.9% 204th | 43.8% 77th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.3% 249th | 23.2% 156th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.7% 139th | 34.1% 117th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 78th | 0.19 312th |
The widest gap: Iowa's defense (9th) against Montana St's offense (95th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Montana St 25, Iowa 39
- First-half margin
- Iowa by 13.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.2
- Projected second half
- Montana St 31, Iowa 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Montana St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 43.0 scored, 26.0 allowed
- Iowa, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 38.5 scored, 26.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Montana St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylee ChirrickG | 28 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Ella JohnsonF | 26 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
| Addison HarrisF | 25 | 13.1 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Jamison PhilipG | 23 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Brianne BaileyG | 19 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Isobel BunyanG | 19 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Dylan PhilipG | 18 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Teagan EricksonF | 17 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
Iowa
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chazadi WrightG | 29 | 11.7 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 4+ ast 52% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Dani CarnegieG | 27 | 15.8 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 45% | |||||
| McKenna WoliczkoF | 24 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 6+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Amari WhitingG | 23 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Ava HeidenC | 23 | 14.9 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Taylor StremlowG | 18 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Journey HoustonG | 17 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Jocelyn FaisonG | 16 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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