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Probable Stats / Women's / Sunday, November 15

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Montana St at UNLV

Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at The Pavilion. Montana St our rank 64 · 2-0; UNLV our rank 93 · 1-2.

Who will win Montana St vs UNLV?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Montana State a 53% chance to beat UNLV, with a projected score of Montana St 68, UNLV 67.

To winMontana St 53%UNLV 47%
Projected score68–67Montana St, then UNLV
Margin0.9Montana St · no line posted
Total135.5no line posted
First half32–32Montana St ahead 50%
Montana St by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20UNLV by 30Model: Montana St by 0.9Montana St by 30by 10by 10UNLV by 30Model: Montana St by 0.9

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Montana St
HarrisF · 27 min16.04.71.115+ 55%
ChirrickG · 30 min12.56.83.110+ 65%
EricksonF · 17 min7.22.90.55+ 67%
PhilipG · 24 min7.12.92.65+ 66%
UNLV
LottG · 34 min15.22.60.915+ 50%
RolandF · 30 min12.17.42.810+ 63%
ConstantG · 29 min9.53.42.910+ 45%
WashenitzG · 24 min7.73.61.710+ 31%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit her

Without Taylee Chirrick: Montana St 36%UNLV 64%

The white mark is the call with her: Montana St 53%.

PlayerPoints a game she addsMontana St without herChangeProjected score
Montana St
Taylee Chirrick4.836%−1766–70
Addison Harris2.743%−1067–69
Ella Johnson2.544%−967–69
Jamison Philip1.946%−767–68
UNLV
Meadow Roland3.465%+1270–66
Jasmyn Lott2.462%+969–66
Marley Washenitz2.261%+869–66
Norah Moo1.860%+769–66

Change is in Montana St's win chance, in points. Scores read Montana St, then UNLV. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Montana St 2-0WW

    1. Nov 8W 75-65vs Portland
    2. Nov 2W 82-38vs Black Hills State
    Last 2
    2–0, scoring 78.5 and allowing 51.5

    UNLV 1-2LWL

    1. Nov 10L 58-65vs Arizona St
    2. Nov 6W 69-51vs UTSA
    3. Nov 2L 68-100vs USC
    Last 3
    1–2, scoring 65.0 and allowing 72.0

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    Montana StUNLV
    Points scored per 100 possessions97.4 95th98.0 90th
    Points allowed per 10083.2 47th90.1 110th
    Possessions a game74.1 43rd71.9 193rd
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)44.6% 238th43.3% 304th
    Opponents' shooting45.9% 204th45.7% 192nd
    Turnovers, share of possessions24.3% 249th24.5% 260th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses33.7% 139th35.5% 57th
    Free throws per shot0.23 78th0.23 81st

    The widest gap: Montana St's defense (47th) against UNLV's offense (90th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Montana St 32, UNLV 32
    First-half margin
    Montana St by 0.5
    First-half points, both teams
    64.2
    Projected second half
    Montana St 36, UNLV 35
    Second-half points, both teams
    71.2
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Montana St, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 2 · 43.0 scored, 26.0 allowed
    UNLV, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 3 · 30.0 scored, 35.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Montana St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Taylee ChirrickG3012.56.83.11.2
    10+ pts 65% · 7+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 57%
    Ella JohnsonF286.34.61.00.3
    5+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 27%
    Addison HarrisF2716.04.71.11.2
    15+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 64%
    Jamison PhilipG247.12.92.60.5
    5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 47%
    Isobel BunyanG194.51.90.41.1
    5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 60%
    Brianne BaileyG186.52.91.70.8
    5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 51%
    Dylan PhilipG184.71.91.00.7
    5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 45%
    Teagan EricksonF177.22.90.50.9
    5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 53%

    UNLV

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Jasmyn LottG3415.22.60.91.8
    15+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 49%
    Meadow RolandF3012.17.42.80.8
    10+ pts 63% · 3+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 51%
    Jayla ConstantG299.53.42.91.3
    10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 53%
    Norah MooF265.27.60.70.1
    5+ pts 48% · 8+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 18%
    Marley WashenitzG247.73.61.71.4
    10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 49%
    Trystan JamesF224.95.30.70.4
    5+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 30%
    Bergan KinnebrewG226.02.31.30.7
    5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 48%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Sun, Nov 15

    All games
    1. 1 PMprojected 77-74Vanderbilt vs Iowa, women's: game page
    2. 2 PMprojected 73-74Florida at Florida St, women's: game page
    3. 2 PMprojected 74-69Oklahoma St at S Dakota St, women's: game page
    4. 2 PMprojected 69-69Michigan St at Harvard, women's: game page
    5. 2 PMprojected 74-74Villanova at Fairfield, women's: game page
    6. 5:30 PMprojected 77-70UConn at Louisville, women's: game page
    Montana St next: at Iowa, Thu, Nov 19 · 4%UNLV next: vs Rice, Tue, Nov 17 · 58%Montana St: schedule and oddsUNLV: schedule and odds