Who won USC vs UNLV?
Final: USC 100, UNLV 68. Before tip-off the model gave USC a 97% chance to win, with a projected margin of 26.5 points for USC. Jazzy Davidson scored 23 for USC; Maia Rosarion had 12 for UNLV.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without JuJu Watkins: USC 91%UNLV 9%
The white mark is the call with her: USC 97%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | USC without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 USC | ||||
| JuJu Watkins | 8.1 | 91% | −6 | 90–72 |
| Jazzy Davidson | 7.1 | 92% | −5 | 91–72 |
| Kennedy Smith | 5.2 | 94% | −3 | 92–71 |
| Laura Williams | 3.2 | 95% | −2 | 93–70 |
 UNLV | ||||
| Meadow Roland | 3.4 | 98% | +1 | 96–66 |
| Jasmyn Lott | 2.4 | 98% | +1 | 96–67 |
| Marley Washenitz | 2.2 | 98% | +1 | 96–67 |
| Norah Moo | 1.8 | 98% | +1 | 95–67 |
Change is in USC's win chance, in points. Scores read USC, then UNLV. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…
Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| USC | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 120.0 3rd | 98.0 90th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 78.7 16th | 90.1 110th |
| Possessions a game | 73.3 76th | 71.9 193rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.2% 4th | 43.3% 304th |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.5% 27th | 45.7% 192nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.8% 3rd | 24.5% 260th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 38.9% 4th | 35.5% 57th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 293rd | 0.23 81st |
The widest gap: USC's offense (3rd) against UNLV's defense (110th), of 363 teams.
First half
USC led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 2.2 points and the total by 13.9.
- At halftime
- USC 52, UNLV 39
- Projected halftime score
- USC 46, UNLV 31
- First-half margin
- USC by 15.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 77.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
USC
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jazzy DavidsonG | 28 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Kennedy SmithG | 27 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| JuJu WatkinsG | 25 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Sara OkekeF | 23 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Saniyah HallG | 23 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 3 |
| Sitaya FaganF | 17 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Pania DavisC | 15 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryann BennettG | 15 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Laura WilliamsF | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
UNLV
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norah MooF | 27 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Jasmyn LottG | 27 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Jayla ConstantG | 25 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Trystan JamesF | 24 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Meadow RolandF | 23 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Bergan KinnebrewG | 22 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Marley WashenitzG | 21 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Maia RosarionG | 12 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| Keonni LewisG | 11 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 |