Who will win Liberty vs Elon?
The model gives Liberty a 76% chance to beat Elon, with a projected score of Liberty 67, Elon 58.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liberty | |||||
| StoutC · 25 min | 11.7 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 10+ 60% | |
| GregoryF · 27 min | 10.9 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 10+ 55% | |
| NwaobiF · 23 min | 9.0 | 8.7 | 1.0 | 10+ 41% | |
| ThompsonG · 22 min | 7.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 10+ 31% | |
 Elon | |||||
| CorbettF · 27 min | 16.6 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 15+ 58% | |
| WatkinsC · 29 min | 11.1 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 10+ 56% | |
| FoxG · 33 min | 10.7 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 10+ 53% | |
| WalkerG · 32 min | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 10+ 38% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Sophia Gregory: Liberty 67%Elon 33%
The white mark is the call with her: Liberty 76%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Liberty without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | ||||
| Sophia Gregory | 3.3 | 67% | −9 | 66–60 |
| Emmy Stout | 2.8 | 69% | −7 | 66–60 |
| Ify Nwaobi | 2.4 | 70% | −6 | 66–60 |
| JaKayla Thompson | 1.4 | 73% | −3 | 67–59 |
| Elon | ||||
| LaNae' Corbett | 1.6 | 80% | +4 | 68–58 |
| Tamia Watkins | 1.4 | 80% | +4 | 68–58 |
Change is in Liberty's win chance, in points. Scores read Liberty, then Elon. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Liberty 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 47-71at NC State
- Nov 7W 82-49at East Carolina
- Nov 2W 73-30vs Frostburg State
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 67.3 and allowing 50.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Liberty | Elon | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.7 85th | 86.2 247th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 88.1 79th | 92.0 134th |
| Possessions a game | 69.7 347th | 72.4 144th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.2% 88th | 44.8% 220th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.1% 96th | 45.7% 188th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.7% 269th | 25.7% 308th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.0% 48th | 30.4% 302nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 95th | 0.23 89th |
The widest gap: Liberty's defense (79th) against Elon's offense (247th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Liberty 32, Elon 27
- First-half margin
- Liberty by 5.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 59.6
- Projected second half
- Liberty 35, Elon 31
- Second-half points, both teams
- 66.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Liberty, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 31.0 scored, 22.3 allowed
- Elon, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 38.3 scored, 29.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Liberty
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia GregoryF | 27 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 8+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Elisabeth AegisdottirF | 26 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Emmy StoutC | 25 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Ify NwaobiF | 23 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 9+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| JaKayla ThompsonG | 22 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Lynn PetersC | 16 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 53% | |||||
| Claudia AcinG | 15 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ ast 42% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Emma LeonG | 15 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
Elon
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashanti FoxG | 33 | 10.7 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Tyana WalkerG | 32 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Tamia WatkinsC | 29 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| LaNae' CorbettF | 27 | 16.6 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 6+ reb 45% | |||||
| Kamryn DotyG | 27 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Kierra MorrowG | 22 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 16% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Sidney SmithG | 15 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Macayla AskewF | 14 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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