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Probable Stats / Women's / Thursday, November 19

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App State at Wake Forest

Women's · Thursday, November 19, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at LJVM Coliseum. App State our rank 121 · 3-0; Wake Forest our rank 112 · 4-0.

Who will win App State vs Wake Forest?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Wake Forest a 65% chance to beat App State, with a projected score of Wake Forest 67, App State 62.

To winWake Forest 65%App State 35%
Projected score62–67App State, then Wake Forest
Margin4.9Wake Forest · no line posted
Total129.4no line posted
First half29–32Wake Forest ahead 60%
App State by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20Wake Forest by 30Model: Wake Forest by 4.9App State by 30by 10by 10Wake Forest by 30Model: Wake Forest by 4.9

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Wake Forest
CarterG · 30 min12.04.81.210+ 62%
SorbyeG · 30 min10.42.22.510+ 51%
NwudeG · 16 min7.72.11.310+ 31%
HollandG · 19 min7.33.00.95+ 67%
App State
WilliamsG · 29 min12.53.52.710+ 65%
MitchellG · 29 min12.03.72.210+ 62%
Defne AtliF · 26 min9.85.40.910+ 47%
AtchisonG · 23 min9.53.11.910+ 45%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit her

Without Mary Carter: App State 42%Wake Forest 58%

The white mark is the call with her: Wake Forest 65%.

PlayerPoints a game she addsWake Forest without herChangeProjected score
Wake Forest
Mary Carter2.258%−763–66
Breauna Ware1.660%−563–66
Aurora Sorbye1.361%−463–67
Opal Bird1.162%−363–67
App State
Joi Williams2.271%+661–68
Raven Preston2.071%+661–68
Daisia Mitchell1.670%+562–68
Addie Biel1.068%+362–68

Change is in Wake Forest's win chance, in points. Scores read App State, then Wake Forest. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    App State 3-0WWW

    1. Nov 11W 71-67at Davidson
    2. Nov 4W 107-43vs Montreat
    3. Nov 2W 74-62at E Michigan
    Last 3
    3–0, scoring 84.0 and allowing 57.3

    Wake Forest 4-0WWWW

    1. Nov 12W 65-48vs UNC Wilmington
    2. Nov 8W 77-51vs Mercer
    3. Nov 5W 85-53vs Presbyterian
    4. Nov 2W 65-58vs SC Upstate
    Last 4
    4–0, scoring 73.0 and allowing 52.5

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    App StateWake Forest
    Points scored per 100 possessions94.1 125th93.6 133rd
    Points allowed per 10090.7 119th89.4 98th
    Possessions a game71.0 285th72.1 164th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)49.4% 20th47.2% 85th
    Opponents' shooting44.3% 108th43.3% 55th
    Turnovers, share of possessions24.1% 234th23.5% 185th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses33.7% 140th29.2% 341st
    Free throws per shot0.20 280th0.22 115th

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    App State 29, Wake Forest 32
    First-half margin
    Wake Forest by 2.8
    First-half points, both teams
    61.4
    Projected second half
    App State 33, Wake Forest 35
    Second-half points, both teams
    68.1
    Tied at the half
    4%
    App State, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 3 · 43.0 scored, 28.3 allowed
    Wake Forest, first halves so far
    Led 4 of 4 · 40.8 scored, 28.8 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    App State

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Daisia MitchellG2912.03.72.21.1
    10+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 61%
    Joi WilliamsG2912.53.52.71.9
    10+ pts 65% · 3+ ast 50% · 2+ threes 50%
    Feryal Defne AtliF269.85.40.90.0
    10+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 24%
    Raven PrestonG268.55.62.20.3
    10+ pts 37% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 61%
    Jadyn AtchisonG239.53.11.90.4
    10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 55%
    Torin RogersG226.52.90.80.8
    5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 50%
    Jayden McBrideG216.73.00.81.0
    5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 57%
    Addie BielF135.83.00.20.1
    5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 54%

    Wake Forest

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Mary CarterG3012.04.81.21.5
    10+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 41%
    Aurora SorbyeG3010.42.22.51.1
    10+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 60% · 3+ ast 44%
    Opal BirdF264.73.62.30.5
    5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 40%
    Breauna WareG256.62.02.00.4
    5+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 57%
    Oshauna HollandG197.33.00.90.3
    5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 23%
    Grace GalbavyG174.52.31.00.4
    5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 35%
    Helena DanielewiczF164.62.80.70.3
    5+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 24%
    Adora NwudeG167.72.11.30.4
    10+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 36%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Thu, Nov 19

    All games
    1. 11 AMprojected 68-76Purdue vs Florida St, women's: game page
    2. 6 PMprojected 64-64Texas Tech vs North Carolina, women's: game page
    3. 6 PMprojected 60-70James Madison at Virginia, women's: game page
    4. 6 PMprojected 65-65High Point at Vermont, women's: game page
    5. 7 PMprojected 62-80Georgetown at NC State, women's: game page
    6. 10 PMprojected 67-77Fairfield at Oregon, women's: game page
    App State next: vs Northwestern, Sat, Nov 14 · 57%Wake Forest next: vs Elon, Sun, Nov 15 · 84%App State: schedule and oddsWake Forest: schedule and odds