App State 74, E Michigan 62
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 6:30 PM ET at Gervin GameAbove Center. App State our rank 121 · 3-0; E Michigan our rank 212 · 0-3.
Who won App State vs E Michigan?
Final: App State 74, Eastern Michigan 62. Before tip-off the model gave App State a 43% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 2.3 points for Eastern Michigan. Joi Williams scored 14 for App State; Fernanda Ovalle had 19 for E Michigan.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Peyton Hill: App State 47%E Michigan 53%
The white mark is the call with her: E Michigan 57%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | E Michigan without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E Michigan | ||||
| Peyton Hill | 1.1 | 53% | −4 | 78–80 |
| App State | ||||
| Joi Williams | 2.2 | 63% | +6 | 77–81 |
| Raven Preston | 2.0 | 62% | +5 | 77–81 |
| Daisia Mitchell | 1.6 | 61% | +4 | 77–81 |
| Addie Biel | 1.0 | 59% | +2 | 77–81 |
Change is in E Michigan's win chance, in points. Scores read App State, then E Michigan. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
App State
No games yet this season: this is its first.
E Michigan
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| App State | E Michigan | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.1 125th | 88.7 205th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 90.7 119th | 97.5 248th |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 285th | 72.5 135th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.4% 20th | 43.2% 310th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.3% 108th | 47.8% 308th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.1% 234th | 23.9% 213th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.7% 140th | 34.5% 99th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 280th | 0.20 274th |
The widest gap: App State's offense (125th) against E Michigan's defense (248th), of 363 teams.
First half
E Michigan led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 1.7 points and the total by 5.9.
- At halftime
- App State 33, E Michigan 36
- Projected halftime score
- App State 37, E Michigan 38
- First-half margin
- E Michigan by 1.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
App State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joi WilliamsG | 31 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| Daisia MitchellG | 28 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Torin RogersG | 28 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Raven PrestonG | 27 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 0 |
| Feryal Defne AtliF | 25 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jadyn AtchisonG | 22 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Jayden McBrideG | 17 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Addie BielF | 13 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley StokerG | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
E Michigan
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoe GuiceG | 39 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Peyton HillF | 36 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 2 |
| Fernanda OvalleF | 29 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 2 |
| Oliwia PelkaF | 26 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Ni'Rah ClarkC | 24 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Believe TshibanguF | 22 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| Anna HabraG | 17 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Alli ZajacC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Paula BaladaG | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |