E Michigan at Kentucky
Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET at Memorial Coliseum (KY). E Michigan our rank 212 · 0-3; Kentucky AP 12, our rank 14 · 4-0.
Who will win E Michigan vs Kentucky?
The model gives Kentucky a >99% chance to beat Eastern Michigan, with a projected score of Kentucky 88, E Michigan 48.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | |||||
| StrackC · 24 min | 15.5 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 15+ 52% | |
| SivkaG · 24 min | 14.0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 15+ 43% | |
| O'NealF · 22 min | 12.9 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 15+ 36% | |
| BooneG · 25 min | 10.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 10+ 50% | |
| E Michigan | |||||
| HillF · 32 min | 9.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 10+ 47% | |
| OvalleF · 28 min | 9.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 10+ 46% | |
| PelkaF · 23 min | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 5+ 63% | |
| GuiceG · 30 min | 6.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 5+ 62% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Clara Strack: E Michigan 1%Kentucky 99%
The white mark is the call with her: Kentucky >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Kentucky without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | ||||
| Clara Strack | 6.7 | 99% | −1 | 51–84 |
| Me'Arah O'Neal | 5.4 | >99% | 0 | 51–85 |
| Asia Boone | 4.3 | >99% | 0 | 50–85 |
| Diana Collins | 4.2 | >99% | 0 | 50–85 |
| E Michigan | ||||
| Peyton Hill | 1.1 | >99% | 0 | 47–88 |
Change is in Kentucky's win chance, in points. Scores read E Michigan, then Kentucky. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
E Michigan 0-3LLL
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 62.0 and allowing 75.3
Kentucky 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 98-30vs EvansvilleCovered −50.5 · Under 137.5
- Nov 8W 93-78vs NC StateCovered −5.5 · Over 136.5
- Nov 5W 79-28vs N KentuckyCovered −40.5 · Under 135.5
- Nov 2W 85-42vs Morehead St
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 88.8 and allowing 44.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 3–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| E Michigan | Kentucky | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 88.7 205th | 111.0 19th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 97.5 248th | 76.8 10th |
| Possessions a game | 72.5 135th | 71.4 234th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.2% 310th | 49.4% 21st |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.8% 308th | 39.7% 3rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.9% 213th | 20.2% 8th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.5% 99th | 35.5% 59th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 274th | 0.17 348th |
The widest gap: Kentucky's offense (19th) against E Michigan's defense (248th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- E Michigan 21, Kentucky 43
- First-half margin
- Kentucky by 22.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.2
- Projected second half
- E Michigan 27, Kentucky 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- E Michigan, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 34.0 scored, 32.3 allowed
- Kentucky, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 46.5 scored, 20.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
E Michigan
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton HillF | 32 | 9.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Zoe GuiceG | 30 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Fernanda OvalleF | 28 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Oliwia PelkaF | 23 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Anna HabraG | 22 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Ni'Rah ClarkC | 21 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 48% to play · 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Believe TshibanguF | 20 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 55% | |||||
| Alli ZajacC | 13 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
Missed the last game: Ni'Rah Clark (24 min a game).
Kentucky
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia BooneG | 25 | 10.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Ajsa SivkaG | 24 | 14.0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Diana CollinsG | 24 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Clara StrackC | 24 | 15.5 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 8+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Me'Arah O'NealF | 22 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Savvy SwordsF | 22 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 8+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Emily McDonaldG | 18 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Maddyn GreenwayG | 16 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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