Who will win Marshall vs Kentucky?
The model gives Kentucky a 99% chance to beat Marshall, with a projected score of Kentucky 83, Marshall 51.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kentucky | |||||
| StrackC · 24 min | 15.0 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 15+ 49% | |
| SivkaG · 25 min | 13.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 15+ 40% | |
| O'NealF · 22 min | 12.4 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 10+ 65% | |
| BooneG · 25 min | 9.8 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 10+ 47% | |
 Marshall | |||||
| OlsonG · 28 min | 10.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 10+ 49% | |
| GallagherG · 28 min | 8.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 38% | |
| ChesterfieldF · 24 min | 6.8 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 5+ 63% | |
| MoodyF · 19 min | 6.8 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 5+ 64% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Clara Strack: Marshall 2%Kentucky 98%
The white mark is the call with her: Kentucky 99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Kentucky without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | ||||
| Clara Strack | 6.7 | 98% | −1 | 55–80 |
| Me'Arah O'Neal | 5.4 | 98% | −1 | 54–80 |
| Asia Boone | 4.3 | 99% | 0 | 54–81 |
| Diana Collins | 4.2 | 99% | 0 | 54–81 |
| Marshall | ||||
| Ni'Kiah Chesterfield | 2.0 | >99% | +1 | 50–84 |
| Olivia Olson | 1.9 | >99% | +1 | 50–84 |
| Maddie Moody | 1.5 | >99% | +1 | 51–84 |
| Kassie Ingram | 1.4 | >99% | +1 | 51–84 |
Change is in Kentucky's win chance, in points. Scores read Marshall, then Kentucky. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Marshall 4-0WWWW
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 71.2 and allowing 60.2
Kentucky 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 98-30vs EvansvilleCovered −50.5 · Under 137.5
- Nov 8W 93-78vs NC StateCovered −5.5 · Over 136.5
- Nov 5W 79-28vs N KentuckyCovered −40.5 · Under 135.5
- Nov 2W 85-42vs Morehead St
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 88.8 and allowing 44.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 3–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Marshall | Kentucky | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.9 117th | 111.0 19th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.0 152nd | 76.8 10th |
| Possessions a game | 71.2 265th | 71.4 234th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.2% 130th | 49.4% 21st |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.8% 37th | 39.7% 3rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.6% 268th | 20.2% 8th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.5% 100th | 35.5% 59th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 19th | 0.17 348th |
The widest gap: Kentucky's offense (19th) against Marshall's defense (152nd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Marshall 23, Kentucky 41
- First-half margin
- Kentucky by 18.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.7
- Projected second half
- Marshall 29, Kentucky 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Marshall, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 35.2 scored, 26.8 allowed
- Kentucky, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 46.5 scored, 20.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Marshall
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cassie GallagherG | 28 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Olivia OlsonG | 28 | 10.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Kassie IngramG | 25 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Ni'Kiah ChesterfieldF | 24 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
| Emily BrattonG | 21 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Maddie MoodyF | 19 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 45% | |||||
| Paris GilmoreG | 17 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 31% to play · 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Anaya HarrisG | 16 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
Missed the last game: Paris Gilmore (20 min a game) and Leyocha Marigney (15 min a game).
Kentucky
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia BooneG | 25 | 9.8 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Ajsa SivkaG | 25 | 13.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Diana CollinsG | 24 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Clara StrackC | 24 | 15.0 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 8+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Me'Arah O'NealF | 22 | 12.4 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Savvy SwordsF | 22 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 7+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Emily McDonaldG | 18 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Maddyn GreenwayG | 16 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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