CA Baptist at UC Davis
Women's · Friday, November 20, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at University Credit Union Center. CA Baptist our rank 119 · 2-0; UC Davis our rank 131 · 2-2.
Who will win CA Baptist vs UC Davis?
The model gives UC Davis a 58% chance to beat California Baptist, with a projected score of UC Davis 71, CA Baptist 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Davis | |||||
| SussexG · 32 min | 14.0 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 15+ 43% | |
| ForslineF · 28 min | 12.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 10+ 65% | |
| DonnellyG · 24 min | 10.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 10+ 54% | |
| YoungF · 26 min | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 10+ 33% | |
| CA Baptist | |||||
| OlsenG · 28 min | 14.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 15+ 46% | |
| BriggsG · 26 min | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 5+ 65% | |
| BreceljF · 17 min | 6.7 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 5+ 63% | |
| WillardsonF · 14 min | 6.3 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 5+ 59% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Avery Sussex: CA Baptist 49%UC Davis 51%
The white mark is the call with her: UC Davis 58%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UC Davis without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Davis | ||||
| Avery Sussex | 2.3 | 51% | −7 | 70–70 |
| Angeliki Ziaka | 1.7 | 52% | −6 | 70–70 |
| Tegan Young | 1.0 | 54% | −4 | 69–71 |
| Rebecca Donnelly | 0.8 | 55% | −3 | 69–71 |
| CA Baptist | ||||
| Chloe Briggs | 2.7 | 66% | +8 | 67–73 |
| Lauren Olsen | 2.5 | 65% | +7 | 68–72 |
| Spela Brecelj | 1.4 | 62% | +4 | 68–72 |
| Paula Haw | 0.7 | 60% | +2 | 68–72 |
Change is in UC Davis's win chance, in points. Scores read CA Baptist, then UC Davis. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
CA Baptist 2-0WW
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 83.0 and allowing 68.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| CA Baptist | UC Davis | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 96.8 101st | 93.1 138th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.2 156th | 91.7 128th |
| Possessions a game | 74.3 29th | 71.7 211th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.6% 66th | 47.0% 94th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.6% 67th | 43.1% 45th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.1% 23rd | 21.7% 44th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.7% 37th | 34.1% 119th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.18 342nd | 0.16 363rd |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- CA Baptist 33, UC Davis 34
- First-half margin
- UC Davis by 1.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.4
- Projected second half
- CA Baptist 36, UC Davis 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- CA Baptist, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 41.5 scored, 23.5 allowed
- UC Davis, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 34.2 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
CA Baptist
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren OlsenG | 28 | 14.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Sofia AlonsoG | 27 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Chloe BriggsG | 26 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Reyleigh HessF | 21 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Josie AgnewG | 20 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Spela BreceljF | 17 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| McKinley WillardsonF | 14 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Bella KlagesG | 12 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
UC Davis
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery SussexG | 32 | 14.0 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.5 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| Marta ForslineF | 28 | 12.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Angeliki ZiakaG | 27 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ ast 57% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Tegan YoungF | 26 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Rebecca DonnellyG | 24 | 10.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Sophie LentferG | 22 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Anna BassettG | 21 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Emmy ErsdalaG | 10 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 17% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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