FGCU at GA Southern
Women's · Friday, November 20, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Jack and Ruth Ann Hill Convocation Center. FGCU our rank 111 · 2-1; GA Southern our rank 180 · 1-2.
Who will win FGCU vs GA Southern?
The model gives Florida Gulf Coast a 59% chance to beat Georgia Southern, with a projected score of FGCU 66, GA Southern 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FGCU | |||||
| LightbourneG · 22 min | 9.2 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 10+ 43% | |
| ZeinstraG · 29 min | 8.5 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 10+ 37% | |
| DouglasG · 25 min | 8.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 10+ 36% | |
| RolleG · 24 min | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 10+ 31% | |
| GA Southern | |||||
| CleavelandF · 29 min | 10.9 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 10+ 55% | |
| BryantG · 19 min | 7.9 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 10+ 32% | |
| HollandG · 30 min | 7.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 10+ 32% | |
| WilliamsF · 28 min | 7.1 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 5+ 66% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Lily Zeinstra: FGCU 54%GA Southern 46%
The white mark is the call with her: FGCU 59%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | FGCU without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FGCU | ||||
| Lily Zeinstra | 1.8 | 54% | −5 | 66–64 |
| Sinai Douglas | 1.6 | 54% | −5 | 66–64 |
| Eve Alexander | 1.3 | 55% | −4 | 66–64 |
| Denika Lightbourne | 1.3 | 55% | −4 | 66–64 |
| GA Southern | ||||
| Kayla Cleaveland | 1.2 | 63% | +4 | 67–63 |
| Lia Anderson | 1.1 | 63% | +4 | 67–63 |
| Kyla Bryant | 0.8 | 62% | +3 | 67–63 |
| Kyra Perkins | 0.8 | 62% | +3 | 67–63 |
Change is in FGCU's win chance, in points. Scores read FGCU, then GA Southern. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
FGCU 2-1LWW
- Nov 11W 99-31vs Ave Maria
- Nov 7W 89-59vs Arkansas St
- Nov 3L 50-79at Indiana
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 79.3 and allowing 56.3
GA Southern 1-2LLW
- Nov 9W 107-61vs Savannah State
- Nov 5L 61-69at Mercer
- Nov 2L 59-82at Bowling Green
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 75.7 and allowing 70.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| FGCU | GA Southern | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.8 140th | 89.3 191st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 88.5 85th | 93.8 171st |
| Possessions a game | 71.9 193rd | 72.7 115th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.3% 187th | 41.6% 345th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.3% 112th | 46.4% 238th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.7% 200th | 23.1% 140th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 194th | 37.1% 27th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 98th | 0.20 244th |
The widest gap: FGCU's defense (85th) against GA Southern's offense (191st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- FGCU 32, GA Southern 30
- First-half margin
- FGCU by 1.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.6
- Projected second half
- FGCU 35, GA Southern 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- FGCU, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 36.0 scored, 22.7 allowed
- GA Southern, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.7 scored, 33.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
FGCU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lily ZeinstraG | 29 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ ast 43% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Karina GordonG | 26 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Sinai DouglasG | 25 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Cerina RolleG | 24 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Denika LightbourneG | 22 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Amelia HobsonG | 21 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Ari TurlaG | 15 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Jalei PillowF | 14 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
GA Southern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markayla HollandG | 30 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Kayla CleavelandF | 29 | 10.9 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 2+ ast 45% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jailyn WilliamsF | 28 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 6+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Jamiria JonesF | 22 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Unique HortonF | 21 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Lia AndersonF | 19 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 49% | |||||
| Kyla BryantG | 19 | 7.9 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Kyra PerkinsG | 13 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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