GA Southern 59, Bowling Green 82
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Stroh Center. GA Southern our rank 180 · 1-2; Bowling Green our rank 166 · 3-0.
Who won GA Southern vs Bowling Green?
Final: Bowling Green 82, Georgia Southern 59. Before tip-off the model gave Bowling Green a 40% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 3.4 points for Georgia Southern. Carol Silva scored 25 for Bowling Green; Kyla Bryant had 13 for GA Southern.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Kayla Cleaveland: GA Southern 56%Bowling Green 44%
The white mark is the call with her: GA Southern 60%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | GA Southern without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GA Southern | ||||
| Kayla Cleaveland | 1.2 | 56% | −4 | 81–79 |
| Lia Anderson | 1.1 | 57% | −3 | 81–79 |
| Kyla Bryant | 0.8 | 57% | −3 | 82–79 |
| Kyra Perkins | 0.8 | 57% | −3 | 82–79 |
| Bowling Green | ||||
| Lauren Gerken | 1.9 | 65% | +5 | 83–78 |
| Carol Silva | 0.8 | 62% | +2 | 82–78 |
| Joniyah Bland-Fitzpatrick | 0.6 | 61% | +1 | 82–78 |
| Sara Caetano | 0.6 | 61% | +1 | 82–78 |
Change is in GA Southern's win chance, in points. Scores read GA Southern, then Bowling Green. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
GA Southern
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Bowling Green
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| GA Southern | Bowling Green | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 89.3 191st | 91.2 161st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.8 171st | 93.4 160th |
| Possessions a game | 72.7 115th | 74.6 20th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 41.6% 345th | 47.7% 61st |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.4% 238th | 45.9% 211th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.1% 140th | 24.3% 250th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 37.1% 27th | 31.7% 242nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 244th | 0.18 338th |
The widest gap: Bowling Green's defense (160th) against GA Southern's offense (191st), of 363 teams.
First half
Bowling Green led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 21.0 points and the total by 7.1.
- At halftime
- GA Southern 25, Bowling Green 44
- Projected halftime score
- GA Southern 39, Bowling Green 37
- First-half margin
- GA Southern by 2.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 76.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
GA Southern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markayla HollandG | 30 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kayla CleavelandF | 28 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Jailyn WilliamsF | 27 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Lia AndersonF | 22 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Kyla BryantG | 22 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Unique HortonF | 18 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyra PerkinsG | 17 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamiria JonesF | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kiyah LewisF | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Bowling Green
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carol SilvaF | 33 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Lauren GerkenF | 31 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| Sara CaetanoG | 28 | 10 | 13 | 2 | 0 |
| Aurelie VanderstraetenF | 21 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Joniyah Bland-FitzpatrickF | 20 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Mafalda MonteiroG | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Sol DepetrisG | 19 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kayla StidhamG | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Sophie AlexanderG | 11 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |