Bowling Green at Penn State
Women's · Thursday, November 19, 2026, 11:00 AM ET at Rec Hall. Bowling Green our rank 166 · 3-0; Penn State our rank 169 · 0-3.
Who will win Bowling Green vs Penn State?
The model gives Penn State a 63% chance to beat Bowling Green, with a projected score of Penn State 73, Bowling Green 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | |||||
| QuigleyG · 32 min | 14.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 15+ 46% | |
| BožanF · 28 min | 12.9 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 15+ 36% | |
| DurleyG · 27 min | 10.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 10+ 48% | |
| BlackG · 31 min | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 5+ 67% | |
| Bowling Green | |||||
| GerkenF · 30 min | 16.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 15+ 59% | |
| SilvaF · 28 min | 14.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 15+ 45% | |
| CaetanoG · 21 min | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 10+ 32% | |
| MonteiroG · 22 min | 7.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 5+ 70% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Petra Božan: Bowling Green 42%Penn State 58%
The white mark is the call with her: Penn State 63%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Penn State without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | ||||
| Petra Božan | 1.7 | 58% | −5 | 70–72 |
| Ava Black | 1.6 | 58% | −5 | 70–72 |
| Devyn Quigley | 1.1 | 60% | −3 | 70–73 |
| Cristen Carter | 0.9 | 60% | −3 | 69–73 |
| Bowling Green | ||||
| Lauren Gerken | 1.9 | 69% | +6 | 68–74 |
| Carol Silva | 0.8 | 66% | +3 | 69–74 |
| Joniyah Bland-Fitzpatrick | 0.6 | 65% | +2 | 69–73 |
| Sara Caetano | 0.6 | 65% | +2 | 69–73 |
Change is in Penn State's win chance, in points. Scores read Bowling Green, then Penn State. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Bowling Green 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 91-66vs Bellarmine
- Nov 5W 77-73vs Cleveland St
- Nov 2W 82-59vs GA Southern
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 83.3 and allowing 66.0
Penn State 0-3LLL
- Nov 9L 71-77at Dayton
- Nov 7L 53-76at Cincinnati
- Nov 2L 61-62vs Cleveland St
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 61.7 and allowing 71.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Bowling Green | Penn State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 91.2 161st | 92.7 142nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.4 160th | 95.2 202nd |
| Possessions a game | 74.6 20th | 73.4 74th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.7% 61st | 44.5% 245th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.9% 211th | 47.4% 294th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.3% 250th | 22.9% 127th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.7% 242nd | 33.2% 157th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.18 338th | 0.20 271st |
The widest gap: Bowling Green's offense (161st) against Penn State's defense (202nd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Bowling Green 32, Penn State 35
- First-half margin
- Penn State by 2.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.4
- Projected second half
- Bowling Green 36, Penn State 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Bowling Green, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 41.3 scored, 26.7 allowed
- Penn State, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 24.7 scored, 34.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Bowling Green
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren GerkenF | 30 | 16.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 2+ ast 50% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Carol SilvaF | 28 | 14.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 7+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Joniyah Bland-FitzpatrickF | 24 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Mafalda MonteiroG | 22 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 70% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Sara CaetanoG | 21 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Kayla StidhamG | 19 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Sol DepetrisG | 16 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Aurelie VanderstraetenF | 16 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Penn State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devyn QuigleyG | 32 | 14.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Ava BlackG | 31 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 6+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Petra BožanF | 28 | 12.9 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Skylar DurleyG | 27 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Enjulina GonzalezG | 27 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Cristen CarterF | 26 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 8+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Savannah WhiteF | 24 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 7+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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