Penn State at Arizona St
Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at Desert Financial Arena. Penn State our rank 169 · 0-3; Arizona St our rank 37 · 3-0.
Who will win Penn State vs Arizona St?
The model gives Arizona State a 98% chance to beat Penn State, with a projected score of Arizona St 82, Penn State 57.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona St | |||||
| MorsonG · 26 min | 16.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 15+ 56% | |
| WhitehornG · 29 min | 13.8 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 15+ 42% | |
| BrackensF · 29 min | 12.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 10+ 62% | |
| CarreraF · 24 min | 11.3 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 10+ 58% | |
| Penn State | |||||
| QuigleyG · 29 min | 10.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 10+ 54% | |
| BožanF · 26 min | 9.9 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 10+ 48% | |
| DurleyG · 25 min | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 10+ 31% | |
| BlackG · 28 min | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 5+ 51% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ruby Whitehorn: Penn State 5%Arizona St 95%
The white mark is the call with her: Arizona St 98%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Arizona St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona St | ||||
| Ruby Whitehorn | 4.6 | 95% | −3 | 59–80 |
| Rashunda Jones | 4.4 | 96% | −2 | 59–80 |
| McKinna Brackens | 3.9 | 96% | −2 | 59–80 |
| Madison Morson | 3.3 | 96% | −2 | 59–81 |
| Penn State | ||||
| Petra Božan | 1.7 | 99% | +1 | 56–83 |
| Ava Black | 1.6 | 99% | +1 | 56–83 |
| Devyn Quigley | 1.1 | 98% | 0 | 56–83 |
| Cristen Carter | 0.9 | 98% | 0 | 56–83 |
Change is in Arizona St's win chance, in points. Scores read Penn State, then Arizona St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Penn State 0-3LLL
- Nov 9L 71-77at Dayton
- Nov 7L 53-76at Cincinnati
- Nov 2L 61-62vs Cleveland St
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 61.7 and allowing 71.7
Arizona St 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 76.0 and allowing 50.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Penn State | Arizona St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.7 142nd | 106.7 32nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.2 202nd | 83.1 46th |
| Possessions a game | 73.4 74th | 71.0 285th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.5% 245th | 47.3% 79th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.4% 294th | 43.2% 54th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.9% 127th | 22.1% 70th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.2% 157th | 36.5% 42nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 271st | 0.19 297th |
The widest gap: Arizona St's offense (32nd) against Penn State's defense (202nd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Penn State 26, Arizona St 40
- First-half margin
- Arizona St by 14.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.0
- Projected second half
- Penn State 31, Arizona St 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Penn State, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 24.7 scored, 34.7 allowed
- Arizona St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 25.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Penn State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devyn QuigleyG | 29 | 10.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Ava BlackG | 28 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 2+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Petra BožanF | 26 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Enjulina GonzalezG | 25 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Skylar DurleyG | 25 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Cristen CarterF | 24 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 7+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Savannah WhiteF | 23 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
Arizona St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McKinna BrackensF | 29 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 7+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Ruby WhitehornG | 29 | 13.8 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Rashunda JonesG | 28 | 10.7 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 5+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Madison MorsonG | 26 | 16.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 2+ ast 44% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Heloisa CarreraF | 24 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Averie LowerG | 19 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Ayanna-Sarai DarringtonF | 16 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Ella RyanG | 14 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 52% to play · 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
Missed the last game: Ella Ryan (17 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…