San Diego at Arizona St
Women's · Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 8:30 PM ET at Desert Financial Arena. San Diego our rank 201 · 2-1; Arizona St our rank 37 · 3-0.
Who will win San Diego vs Arizona St?
The model gives Arizona State a 99% chance to beat San Diego, with a projected score of Arizona St 82, San Diego 52.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona St | |||||
| MorsonG · 26 min | 16.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 15+ 55% | |
| WhitehornG · 28 min | 13.6 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 15+ 40% | |
| BrackensF · 28 min | 11.8 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 10+ 61% | |
| CarreraF · 24 min | 11.3 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 10+ 57% | |
| San Diego | |||||
| RayG · 32 min | 14.1 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 15+ 43% | |
| OwensG · 24 min | 8.0 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 10+ 33% | |
| RuseF · 28 min | 7.3 | 7.9 | 0.5 | 5+ 68% | |
| AjayiG · 27 min | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 5+ 64% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ruby Whitehorn: San Diego 2%Arizona St 98%
The white mark is the call with her: Arizona St 99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Arizona St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona St | ||||
| Ruby Whitehorn | 4.6 | 98% | −1 | 54–79 |
| Rashunda Jones | 4.4 | 98% | −1 | 54–79 |
| McKinna Brackens | 3.9 | 98% | −1 | 54–80 |
| Madison Morson | 3.3 | 98% | −1 | 54–80 |
| San Diego | ||||
| Kiera Pemberton | 1.9 | 99% | 0 | 51–83 |
| Sammie Wagner | 1.1 | 99% | 0 | 51–82 |
| Eva Ruse | 0.7 | 99% | 0 | 52–82 |
Change is in Arizona St's win chance, in points. Scores read San Diego, then Arizona St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
San Diego 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 70-67vs Portland St
- Nov 7L 88-90vs UC San Diego
- Nov 2W 61-56at New Mexico St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 73.0 and allowing 71.0
Arizona St 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 76.0 and allowing 50.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| San Diego | Arizona St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 88.8 199th | 106.7 32nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 96.1 221st | 83.1 46th |
| Possessions a game | 71.7 211th | 71.0 285th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.1% 90th | 47.3% 79th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.7% 257th | 43.2% 54th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.3% 255th | 22.1% 70th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.0% 122nd | 36.5% 42nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 108th | 0.19 297th |
The widest gap: Arizona St's offense (32nd) against San Diego's defense (221st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- San Diego 23, Arizona St 40
- First-half margin
- Arizona St by 17.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.3
- Projected second half
- San Diego 29, Arizona St 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- San Diego, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 33.0 scored, 34.0 allowed
- Arizona St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 34.7 scored, 25.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
San Diego
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylie RayG | 32 | 14.1 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Eva RuseF | 28 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 8+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Jessica AjayiG | 27 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Sammie WagnerG | 26 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Kiera PembertonF | 24 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
| Olivia OwensG | 24 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 45% to play · 10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Lilly AmorG | 21 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 15% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Braelynn BarnettF | 11 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 50% | |||||
Missed the last game: Olivia Owens (28 min a game).
Arizona St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McKinna BrackensF | 28 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 7+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Ruby WhitehornG | 28 | 13.6 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Rashunda JonesG | 28 | 10.5 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 5+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Madison MorsonG | 26 | 16.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Heloisa CarreraF | 24 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Averie LowerG | 19 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Ayanna-Sarai DarringtonF | 16 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Ella RyanG | 14 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 52% to play · 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
Missed the last game: Ella Ryan (17 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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