San Diego 61, New Mexico St 56
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Pan American Center. San Diego our rank 201 · 2-1; New Mexico St our rank 250 · 2-1.
Who won San Diego vs New Mexico St?
Final: San Diego 61, New Mexico State 56. Before tip-off the model gave San Diego a 56% chance to win, with a projected margin of 2.0 points for San Diego. Kiera Pemberton scored 22 for San Diego; Raina Tomasicka had 24 for New Mexico St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Kiera Pemberton: San Diego 50%New Mexico St 50%
The white mark is the call with her: San Diego 56%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | San Diego without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | ||||
| Kiera Pemberton | 1.9 | 50% | −6 | 76–76 |
| Sammie Wagner | 1.1 | 53% | −3 | 77–76 |
| Eva Ruse | 0.7 | 55% | −1 | 77–75 |
| New Mexico St | ||||
| Aimée Michel | 0.5 | 59% | +3 | 77–75 |
Change is in San Diego's win chance, in points. Scores read San Diego, then New Mexico St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
San Diego
No games yet this season: this is its first.
New Mexico St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| San Diego | New Mexico St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 88.8 199th | 83.3 279th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 96.1 221st | 95.7 212th |
| Possessions a game | 71.7 211th | 71.6 219th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.1% 90th | 45.7% 157th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.7% 257th | 43.1% 49th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.3% 255th | 26.8% 336th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.0% 122nd | 36.3% 44th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 108th | 0.21 180th |
The widest gap: San Diego's defense (221st) against New Mexico St's offense (279th), of 363 teams.
First half
New Mexico St led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 3.1 points and the total by 18.1.
- At halftime
- San Diego 26, New Mexico St 28
- Projected halftime score
- San Diego 37, New Mexico St 36
- First-half margin
- San Diego by 1.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
San Diego
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylie RayG | 37 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Kiera PembertonF | 32 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| Olivia OwensG | 27 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Sammie WagnerG | 26 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Eva RuseF | 22 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0 |
| Lilly AmorG | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jessica AjayiG | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Braelynn BarnettF | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Ayla WilliamsF | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
New Mexico St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aimée MichelF | 32 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Stacy ChovinoF | 31 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| Talia KavokaG | 29 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Lilyana FontchaC | 28 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Raina TomasickaG | 28 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| Eva AgbaG | 20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Eva HamlilG | 16 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aissatou Keita CissokoC | 15 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Imane LoubibetF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |