Kansas City at New Mexico St
Women's · Monday, November 16, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Pan American Center. Kansas City our rank 231 · 2-1; New Mexico St our rank 250 · 2-1.
Who will win Kansas City vs New Mexico St?
The model gives New Mexico State a 57% chance to beat Kansas City, with a projected score of New Mexico St 68, Kansas City 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico St | |||||
| TomasickaG · 27 min | 15.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 15+ 54% | |
| ChovinoF · 31 min | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 10+ 63% | |
| MichelF · 34 min | 11.7 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 10+ 61% | |
| FontchaC · 26 min | 6.1 | 7.2 | 0.5 | 5+ 57% | |
| Kansas City | |||||
| BennettG · 33 min | 15.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 15+ 51% | |
| Strickland HurstG · 27 min | 13.4 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 15+ 39% | |
| BennettG · 28 min | 12.8 | 7.4 | 1.8 | 15+ 35% | |
| ColemanG · 21 min | 11.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 10+ 57% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Aimée Michel: Kansas City 45%New Mexico St 55%
The white mark is the call with her: New Mexico St 57%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | New Mexico St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico St | ||||
| Aimée Michel | 0.5 | 55% | −2 | 66–68 |
| Kansas City | ||||
| Avery Strickland Hurst | 1.1 | 60% | +3 | 65–69 |
| Elauni Bennett | 0.5 | 59% | +2 | 66–68 |
Change is in New Mexico St's win chance, in points. Scores read Kansas City, then New Mexico St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Kansas City 2-1WWL
- Nov 9L 81-89at Arkansas
- Nov 6W 83-78vs Wichita St
- Nov 2W 120-40vs Baker
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 94.7 and allowing 69.0
New Mexico St 2-1LWW
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 63.0 and allowing 58.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Kansas City | New Mexico St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 90.2 173rd | 83.3 279th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 101.2 315th | 95.7 212th |
| Possessions a game | 72.9 103rd | 71.6 219th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.0% 91st | 45.7% 157th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.7% 302nd | 43.1% 49th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.5% 101st | 26.8% 336th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.3% 152nd | 36.3% 44th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 76th | 0.21 180th |
The widest gap: Kansas City's offense (173rd) against New Mexico St's defense (212th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Kansas City 31, New Mexico St 32
- First-half margin
- New Mexico St by 1.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.5
- Projected second half
- Kansas City 35, New Mexico St 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Kansas City, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 50.3 scored, 32.3 allowed
- New Mexico St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 29.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Kansas City
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emani BennettG | 33 | 15.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 2+ ast 45% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Elauni BennettG | 28 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 1.8 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 8+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Avery Strickland HurstG | 27 | 13.4 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Micaela CarterG | 24 | 7.7 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Chrishawn ColemanG | 21 | 11.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Shiloh KalengaF | 19 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Talasia ThomasF | 15 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Jayla LewisG | 13 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
New Mexico St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aimée MichelF | 34 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Stacy ChovinoF | 31 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 7+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Eva AgbaG | 28 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Raina TomasickaG | 27 | 15.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Lilyana FontchaC | 26 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 7+ reb 54% | |||||
| Eva HamlilG | 25 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Talia KavokaG | 24 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 25% to play · 5+ pts 15% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Aissatou Keita CissokoC | 12 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 3+ reb 45% | |||||
Missed the last game: Talia Kavoka (29 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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