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Probable Stats / Women's / Monday, November 16

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Bryant at Holy Cross

Women's · Monday, November 16, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Hart Center Arena. Bryant our rank 157 · 4-0; Holy Cross our rank 196 · 3-1.

Who will win Bryant vs Holy Cross?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Holy Cross a 50% chance to beat Bryant, with a projected score of Holy Cross 59, Bryant 59.

To winHoly Cross 50%Bryant 50%
Projected score59–59Bryant, then Holy Cross
Margin0.0Holy Cross · no line posted
Total117.4no line posted
First half28–28Holy Cross ahead 48%
Bryant by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20Holy Cross by 30Model: EvenBryant by 30by 10by 10Holy Cross by 30Model: Even

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Holy Cross
BachmannG · 29 min13.16.01.615+ 37%
EddyG · 35 min11.32.53.510+ 58%
PhiriG · 33 min9.74.61.410+ 46%
McDermottG · 28 min7.02.81.65+ 65%
Bryant
ManciniG · 36 min12.44.64.310+ 65%
McNamaraF · 34 min11.55.71.510+ 59%
ScottF · 29 min10.77.61.210+ 53%
WedemeyerG · 26 min8.72.61.810+ 39%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit her

Without Janie Bachmann: Bryant 55%Holy Cross 45%

The white mark is the call with her: Holy Cross 50%.

PlayerPoints a game she addsHoly Cross without herChangeProjected score
Holy Cross
Janie Bachmann1.445%−559–58
Kendall Eddy1.046%−459–58
Emma Lizotte0.747%−359–58
Bryant
Nia Scott2.359%+958–60
Mia Mancini1.455%+558–59
Izzy Adams0.953%+358–59
Cameron McNamara0.753%+358–59

Change is in Holy Cross's win chance, in points. Scores read Bryant, then Holy Cross. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Bryant 4-0WWWW

    1. Nov 11W 53-47at Providence
    2. Nov 8W 63-46at Manhattan
    3. Nov 5W 65-63vs Marist
    4. Nov 2W 75-25vs MIT
    Last 4
    4–0, scoring 64.0 and allowing 45.2

    Holy Cross 3-1WWLW

    1. Nov 12W 77-64at Brown
    2. Nov 9L 42-63vs Harvard
    3. Nov 5W 49-46vs Dartmouth
    4. Nov 2W 64-54at Boston College
    Last 4
    3–1, scoring 58.0 and allowing 56.8

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    BryantHoly Cross
    Points scored per 100 possessions88.3 212th86.0 252nd
    Points allowed per 10089.9 105th92.5 142nd
    Possessions a game69.9 341st70.7 307th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)47.0% 91st44.8% 220th
    Opponents' shooting44.9% 148th42.8% 36th
    Turnovers, share of possessions24.0% 228th21.2% 27th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses32.3% 206th27.4% 360th
    Free throws per shot0.21 182nd0.16 362nd

    The widest gap: Bryant's defense (105th) against Holy Cross's offense (252nd), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Bryant 28, Holy Cross 28
    First-half margin
    Tied
    First-half points, both teams
    55.6
    Projected second half
    Bryant 31, Holy Cross 31
    Second-half points, both teams
    61.7
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Bryant, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 4 · 35.5 scored, 23.8 allowed
    Holy Cross, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 4 · 25.0 scored, 28.5 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Bryant

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Mia ManciniG3612.44.64.31.8
    10+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 49%
    Cameron McNamaraF3411.55.71.50.1
    10+ pts 59% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 43%
    Izzy AdamsG327.63.73.01.0
    10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 54%
    Nia ScottF2910.77.61.20.1
    10+ pts 53% · 8+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 33%
    Martina BobaG295.12.92.20.6
    5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 44%
    Genevive WedemeyerG268.72.61.81.3
    10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 51%

    Holy Cross

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Hannah GriffinG365.95.62.51.0
    5+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 44%
    Kendall EddyG3511.32.53.51.3
    10+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 44% · 4+ ast 45%
    Colleen PhiriG339.74.61.41.2
    10+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 40%
    Janie BachmannG2913.16.01.60.6
    15+ pts 37% · 6+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 45%
    Brianna McDermottG287.02.81.61.0
    5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 44%
    Emma LizotteF193.23.90.80.0
    5+ pts 27% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 20%
    Abigail CasperF173.72.90.60.5
    5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 40%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Mon, Nov 16

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    3. 7 PMprojected 57-71UAlbany at Rutgers, women's: game page
    4. 8 PMprojected 60-98Troy at LSU, women's: game page
    5. 8 PMprojected 66-65UC Davis at N Colorado, women's: game page
    6. 8 PMprojected 74-66Arkansas at Little Rock, women's: game page
    Bryant next: at Northeastern, Sat, Nov 21 · 57%Holy Cross next: at Richmond, Sun, Nov 22 · 9%Bryant: schedule and oddsHoly Cross: schedule and odds