Who will win Louisiana vs UTSA?
The model gives UTSA a 89% chance to beat Louisiana, with a projected score of UTSA 70, Louisiana 54.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UTSA | |||||
| AllenG · 26 min | 10.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 10+ 52% | |
| MerchantG · 25 min | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 10+ 51% | |
| UdoF · 25 min | 9.8 | 6.4 | 0.9 | 10+ 47% | |
| RoblesPG · 28 min | 9.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 10+ 45% | |
 Louisiana | |||||
| DanielF · 27 min | 10.7 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 10+ 53% | |
| JacksonG · 27 min | 10.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 10+ 52% | |
| JonesG · 27 min | 8.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 10+ 36% | |
| SoweF · 28 min | 7.8 | 6.7 | 1.1 | 10+ 32% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Idara Udo: Louisiana 13%UTSA 87%
The white mark is the call with her: UTSA 89%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UTSA without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | ||||
| Idara Udo | 1.6 | 87% | −2 | 55–69 |
| Taylor Ross | 1.5 | 87% | −2 | 55–69 |
| Kierra Merchant | 1.5 | 87% | −2 | 55–69 |
| Praise Egharevba | 1.4 | 87% | −2 | 55–69 |
| Louisiana | ||||
| Imani Daniel | 0.5 | 90% | +1 | 54–70 |
Change is in UTSA's win chance, in points. Scores read Louisiana, then UTSA. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Louisiana 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 77-80at East Texas A&M
- Nov 5L 51-62at Texas A&M
- Nov 3W 77-72vs Xavier (LA)
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 68.3 and allowing 71.3
UTSA 1-2LLW
- Nov 11W 73-51vs Incarnate WordCovered −14.5 · Under 125.5
- Nov 8L 56-65at San Diego St
- Nov 6L 51-69at UNLV
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 60.0 and allowing 61.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Louisiana | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 85.2 259th | 91.2 159th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.4 207th | 87.0 66th |
| Possessions a game | 73.2 84th | 70.6 312th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.1% 311th | 45.2% 195th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.8% 142nd | 45.0% 153rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.5% 99th | 25.9% 321st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.7% 38th | 37.9% 16th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 130th | 0.18 331st |
The widest gap: UTSA's defense (66th) against Louisiana's offense (259th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Louisiana 25, UTSA 34
- First-half margin
- UTSA by 9.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 59.0
- Projected second half
- Louisiana 29, UTSA 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 65.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Louisiana, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 32.3 scored, 33.3 allowed
- UTSA, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 23.0 scored, 31.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Louisiana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aminata SoweF | 28 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Jazmyne JacksonG | 27 | 10.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Malaya JonesG | 27 | 8.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Imani DanielF | 27 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Bailey TimmonsG | 22 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Amijah PriceG | 19 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Arionna PattersonF | 15 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
| Mikaylah ManleyG | 14 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
UTSA
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adriana RoblesPG | 28 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Damara AllenG | 26 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Idara UdoF | 25 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 7+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Kierra MerchantG | 25 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Mia HammondsG | 23 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ ast 47% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Praise EgharevbaF | 19 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Taylor RossF | 19 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Maya LintonG | 17 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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