Cleveland St at Xavier
Women's · Monday, November 16, 2026, 6:30 PM ET at Cintas Center. Cleveland St our rank 158 · 1-2; Xavier our rank 108 · 3-0.
Who will win Cleveland St vs Xavier?
The model gives Xavier a 76% chance to beat Cleveland State, with a projected score of Xavier 72, Cleveland St 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier | |||||
| JeromeG · 27 min | 14.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 15+ 44% | |
| RanG · 26 min | 11.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 10+ 60% | |
| KanervaG · 34 min | 11.0 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 10+ 55% | |
| Carter-HartleyF · 24 min | 8.2 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 10+ 35% | |
| Cleveland St | |||||
| TaylorG · 31 min | 13.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 15+ 38% | |
| OliverG · 32 min | 9.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 10+ 45% | |
| GonzalezF · 22 min | 8.3 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 10+ 36% | |
| PiqueG · 34 min | 7.5 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 5+ 69% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Diawna Carter-Hartley: Cleveland St 29%Xavier 71%
The white mark is the call with her: Xavier 76%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Xavier without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier | ||||
| Diawna Carter-Hartley | 1.9 | 71% | −5 | 64–71 |
| Mya Moore | 1.6 | 72% | −4 | 64–71 |
| Maria Anais Rodriguez | 1.5 | 72% | −4 | 64–71 |
| Meri Kanerva | 1.3 | 73% | −3 | 64–71 |
| Cleveland St | ||||
| Macie Taylor | 2.2 | 81% | +5 | 62–73 |
| Sarah Hurley | 0.9 | 78% | +2 | 63–72 |
| Alexa Hocevar | 0.9 | 78% | +2 | 63–72 |
| Paula Pique | 0.9 | 78% | +2 | 63–72 |
Change is in Xavier's win chance, in points. Scores read Cleveland St, then Xavier. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Cleveland St 1-2WLL
- Nov 10L 71-76at Drake
- Nov 5L 73-77at Bowling Green
- Nov 2W 62-61at Penn State
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 68.7 and allowing 71.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Cleveland St | Xavier | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.0 151st | 96.9 100th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.7 164th | 92.6 143rd |
| Possessions a game | 71.9 193rd | 71.4 234th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.9% 144th | 49.7% 16th |
| Opponents' shooting | 43.8% 77th | 44.7% 134th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.9% 17th | 22.6% 103rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.1% 313th | 35.0% 83rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 20th | 0.22 128th |
The widest gap: Xavier's offense (100th) against Cleveland St's defense (164th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Cleveland St 30, Xavier 35
- First-half margin
- Xavier by 5.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.1
- Projected second half
- Cleveland St 34, Xavier 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Cleveland St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 31.0 scored, 35.0 allowed
- Xavier, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 38.7 scored, 32.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Cleveland St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paula PiqueG | 34 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Chloe OliverG | 32 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Macie TaylorG | 31 | 13.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Sarah HurleyG | 30 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Alexa HocevarG | 26 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 6+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Silvia GonzalezF | 22 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Annika CorcoranG | 19 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 30% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
Xavier
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meri KanervaG | 34 | 11.0 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 5+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Lucile JeromeG | 27 | 14.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 3+ ast 43% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Kejia RanG | 26 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Diawna Carter-HartleyF | 24 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Maria Anais RodriguezF | 21 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Mya MooreF | 16 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 46% | |||||
| Kodee Williams-SefoG | 15 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Hila KarshG | 14 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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