Who will win Xavier vs Ohio?
The model gives Xavier a 58% chance to beat Ohio, with a projected score of Xavier 68, Ohio 65.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Xavier | |||||
| JeromeG · 28 min | 13.8 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 15+ 42% | |
| RanG · 26 min | 11.3 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 10+ 58% | |
| KanervaG · 35 min | 10.8 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 10+ 54% | |
| Carter-HartleyF · 24 min | 8.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 10+ 33% | |
 Ohio | |||||
| WilliamsG · 27 min | 10.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 10+ 49% | |
| TabelingG · 27 min | 8.2 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 10+ 35% | |
| BaxterG · 21 min | 5.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 5+ 52% | |
| MoultrieG · 26 min | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 5+ 51% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Diawna Carter-Hartley: Xavier 52%Ohio 48%
The white mark is the call with her: Xavier 58%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Xavier without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier | ||||
| Diawna Carter-Hartley | 1.9 | 52% | −6 | 67–66 |
| Mya Moore | 1.6 | 53% | −5 | 67–66 |
| Maria Anais Rodriguez | 1.5 | 53% | −5 | 67–66 |
| Meri Kanerva | 1.3 | 54% | −4 | 67–66 |
| Ohio | ||||
| Bailey Tabeling | 1.9 | 63% | +5 | 69–64 |
| Antonicia Moultrie | 1.0 | 61% | +3 | 68–65 |
| ReRe Jennings | 0.8 | 60% | +2 | 68–65 |
| Asiah Baxter | 0.8 | 60% | +2 | 68–65 |
Change is in Xavier's win chance, in points. Scores read Xavier, then Ohio. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Xavier 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 78.7 and allowing 65.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Xavier | Ohio | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 96.9 100th | 86.6 238th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.6 143rd | 90.3 115th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 234th | 74.3 29th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.7% 16th | 43.3% 306th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.7% 134th | 44.1% 94th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.6% 103rd | 24.8% 275th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.0% 83rd | 32.8% 180th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 128th | 0.22 136th |
The widest gap: Xavier's defense (143rd) against Ohio's offense (238th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Xavier 32, Ohio 31
- First-half margin
- Xavier by 1.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.2
- Projected second half
- Xavier 36, Ohio 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Xavier, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 38.7 scored, 32.0 allowed
- Ohio, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 25.0 scored, 18.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Xavier
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meri KanervaG | 35 | 10.8 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 56% · 5+ ast 50% | |||||
| Lucile JeromeG | 28 | 13.8 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Kejia RanG | 26 | 11.3 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Diawna Carter-HartleyF | 24 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Maria Anais RodriguezF | 21 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Mya MooreF | 16 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 58% | |||||
| Kodee Williams-SefoG | 15 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Hila KarshG | 14 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
Ohio
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monica WilliamsG | 27 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Bailey TabelingG | 27 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Antonicia MoultrieG | 26 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Asiah BaxterG | 21 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Kamie EllisG | 21 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Irene Asensio ManosaG | 18 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 15% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Danni ScullyF | 17 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| Gigi BowerG | 16 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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