Alabama v North Carolina
Women's · Saturday, November 21, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at State Farm Field House. Alabama our rank 42 · 4-1; North Carolina AP 23, our rank 28 · 1-2.
Who will win Alabama vs North Carolina?
The model gives North Carolina a 61% chance to beat Alabama, with a projected score of North Carolina 71, Alabama 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | |||||
| BrooksG · 26 min | 12.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 63% | |
| HarpringG · 27 min | 11.7 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 10+ 60% | |
| AkotF · 24 min | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 10+ 44% | |
| KellyG · 26 min | 6.3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 5+ 59% | |
| Alabama | |||||
| AustinG · 33 min | 13.3 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 15+ 39% | |
| AndersonG · 27 min | 10.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 10+ 55% | |
| WestG · 21 min | 8.5 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 10+ 37% | |
| TorrenceF · 22 min | 8.2 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Achol Akot: Alabama 53%North Carolina 47%
The white mark is the call with her: North Carolina 61%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | North Carolina without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | ||||
| Achol Akot | 4.4 | 47% | −14 | 70–69 |
| Nyla Brooks | 4.0 | 48% | −13 | 70–69 |
| Reniya Kelly | 3.2 | 51% | −10 | 70–70 |
| Sophie Burrows | 2.6 | 53% | −8 | 69–70 |
| Alabama | ||||
| Ace Austin | 4.1 | 73% | +12 | 66–74 |
| Aaliyah Roberson | 3.4 | 71% | +10 | 66–73 |
| Naomi Jones | 3.2 | 71% | +10 | 66–73 |
| Kylie Torrence | 2.2 | 68% | +7 | 67–73 |
Change is in North Carolina's win chance, in points. Scores read Alabama, then North Carolina. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Alabama 4-1WWWWL
- Nov 12L 70-75at Memphis
- Nov 8W 68-63at TulaneDidn't cover −17.5 · Under 137.5
- Nov 5W 96-43vs Alabama A&M
- Nov 4W 118-45vs LSU N Orleans
- Nov 2W 92-56vs Queens
- Last five
- 4–1, scoring 88.8 and allowing 56.4
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
North Carolina 1-2LLW
- Nov 11W 109-40vs NC CentralCovered −46.5 · Over 136.5
- Nov 8L 39-84vs South CarolinaDidn't cover +16.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 2L 79-91vs Oklahoma
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 75.7 and allowing 71.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Alabama | North Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.7 44th | 107.3 27th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 82.9 44th | 82.2 38th |
| Possessions a game | 73.3 76th | 71.9 193rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.6% 30th | 46.1% 137th |
| Opponents' shooting | 40.7% 9th | 45.5% 174th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.8% 122nd | 22.6% 106th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.4% 61st | 37.5% 24th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 144th | 0.17 355th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Alabama 32, North Carolina 34
- First-half margin
- North Carolina by 2.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.1
- Projected second half
- Alabama 36, North Carolina 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Alabama, first halves so far
- Led 5 of 5 · 44.6 scored, 27.4 allowed
- North Carolina, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 36.3 scored, 29.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Alabama
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ace AustinG | 33 | 13.3 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Amirah AndersonG | 27 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Tianna ChambersG | 23 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Naomi JonesF | 22 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Kylie TorrenceF | 22 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| Alayna WestG | 21 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 6+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Aaliyah RobersonF | 20 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Mykelle RichardsF | 16 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
North Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate HarpringG | 27 | 11.7 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Reniya KellyG | 26 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Nyla BrooksG | 26 | 12.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 43% · 3+ threes 41% | |||||
| Achol AkotF | 24 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Blanca ThomasC | 22 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Gabby WhiteG | 18 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Sophie BurrowsG | 16 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Taissa QueirozG | 14 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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