Who will win Duke vs Columbia?
The model gives Duke a 80% chance to beat Columbia, with a projected score of Duke 74, Columbia 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Duke | |||||
| FournierF · 23 min | 14.4 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 15+ 45% | |
| CrumpG · 24 min | 10.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 10+ 51% | |
| NelsonG · 26 min | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 10+ 42% | |
| ThomasF · 24 min | 8.8 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 10+ 39% | |
 Columbia | |||||
| WeissG · 34 min | 18.2 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 20+ 40% | |
| BroomG · 30 min | 10.2 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 10+ 49% | |
| Ashley StevensonF · 28 min | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 10+ 45% | |
| HendersonG · 30 min | 6.9 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 5+ 64% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Toby Fournier: Duke 64%Columbia 36%
The white mark is the call with her: Duke 80%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Duke without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | ||||
| Toby Fournier | 6.1 | 64% | −16 | 71–67 |
| Delaney Thomas | 5.5 | 66% | −14 | 71–66 |
| Aaliyah Crump | 5.3 | 66% | −14 | 71–66 |
| Riley Nelson | 4.5 | 69% | −11 | 72–66 |
| Columbia | ||||
| Riley Weiss | 5.0 | 90% | +10 | 77–61 |
| Mia Broom | 3.5 | 87% | +7 | 76–62 |
| Fliss Henderson | 3.0 | 86% | +6 | 76–62 |
| Mary Ashley Stevenson | 2.6 | 86% | +6 | 75–62 |
Change is in Duke's win chance, in points. Scores read Duke, then Columbia. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Duke 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 79.7 and allowing 46.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Duke | Columbia | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 111.2 17th | 104.8 40th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 73.4 5th | 86.6 63rd |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 179th | 72.2 156th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.1% 23rd | 47.2% 87th |
| Opponents' shooting | 40.8% 10th | 44.8% 140th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.7% 45th | 23.8% 210th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 35.9% 50th | 35.5% 57th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 284th | 0.20 252nd |
The widest gap: Duke's offense (17th) against Columbia's defense (63rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Duke 36, Columbia 30
- First-half margin
- Duke by 6.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.2
- Projected second half
- Duke 38, Columbia 34
- Second-half points, both teams
- 72.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Duke, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.3 scored, 22.3 allowed
- Columbia, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 33.5 scored, 30.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Duke
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley NelsonG | 26 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Aaliyah CrumpG | 24 | 10.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Delaney ThomasF | 24 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Toby FournierF | 23 | 14.4 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
| Autumn FlearyG | 23 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Bella FlemingsG | 21 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Arianna RobersonC | 19 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Jordan WoodF | 14 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
Missed the last game: Emilee Skinner (16 min a game).
Columbia
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley WeissG | 34 | 18.2 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| 20+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Fliss HendersonG | 30 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 8+ reb 49% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Mia BroomG | 30 | 10.2 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Mary Ashley StevensonF | 28 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Hilke FeldrappeF | 26 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Nasi SimmonsG | 16 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
| Eirny ErinughaF | 11 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 2+ reb 59% | |||||
| Chloe DixG | 11 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 30% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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