James Madison at George Mason
Women's · Saturday, November 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET at EagleBank Arena. James Madison our rank 53 · 2-2; George Mason our rank 88 · 2-2.
Who will win James Madison vs George Mason?
The model gives James Madison a 63% chance to beat George Mason, with a projected score of James Madison 67, George Mason 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | |||||
| RobinsonG · 30 min | 10.1 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 10+ 49% | |
| MooreF · 22 min | 9.6 | 6.2 | 0.6 | 10+ 45% | |
| StephensonG · 25 min | 8.8 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 10+ 39% | |
| McDonoughF · 19 min | 6.6 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 5+ 62% | |
| George Mason | |||||
| AmoatengG · 32 min | 14.4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 15+ 45% | |
| ShealsG · 31 min | 13.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 15+ 40% | |
| BobG · 23 min | 8.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 10+ 37% | |
| YancyG · 28 min | 8.3 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 10+ 36% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Bree Robinson: James Madison 52%George Mason 48%
The white mark is the call with her: James Madison 63%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | James Madison without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | ||||
| Bree Robinson | 3.5 | 52% | −11 | 65–64 |
| Trinity Moore | 3.0 | 54% | −9 | 65–64 |
| Delilah Soltys | 2.5 | 55% | −8 | 65–64 |
| Zakiya Stephenson | 2.3 | 56% | −7 | 65–64 |
| George Mason | ||||
| Mary Amoateng | 3.3 | 73% | +10 | 68–61 |
| Anovia Sheals | 2.6 | 71% | +8 | 68–61 |
| Lourdes Da Silva Costa | 2.0 | 69% | +6 | 68–62 |
| Mary-Kate Tshibuabua | 1.8 | 68% | +5 | 68–62 |
Change is in James Madison's win chance, in points. Scores read James Madison, then George Mason. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
James Madison 2-2LWLW
- Nov 11W 77-61vs Navy
- Nov 8L 43-59at Virginia Tech
- Nov 5W 77-38vs C Connecticut
- Nov 2L 52-59at Miami OH
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 62.2 and allowing 54.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| James Madison | George Mason | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.9 82nd | 97.5 93rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 81.3 29th | 88.8 91st |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 234th | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.4% 183rd | 45.9% 148th |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.2% 22nd | 45.1% 156th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.2% 162nd | 23.8% 207th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.4% 101st | 33.2% 157th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.16 356th | 0.25 16th |
The widest gap: James Madison's defense (29th) against George Mason's offense (93rd), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- James Madison 32, George Mason 29
- First-half margin
- James Madison by 2.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.3
- Projected second half
- James Madison 35, George Mason 33
- Second-half points, both teams
- 68.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- James Madison, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 27.8 scored, 27.2 allowed
- George Mason, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 31.5 scored, 31.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
James Madison
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bree RobinsonG | 30 | 10.1 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Zakiya StephensonG | 25 | 8.8 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Maddie LeachG | 24 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Delilah SoltysG | 24 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Trinity MooreF | 22 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Grace McDonoughF | 19 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 48% | |||||
| Trynce TaylorF | 18 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Ja'Quoia Jones-BrownG | 18 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
Missed the last game: Brianna McLeod (17 min a game).
George Mason
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary AmoatengG | 32 | 14.4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 50% · 4+ ast 41% | |||||
| Anovia ShealsG | 31 | 13.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Mary-Kate TshibuabuaF | 29 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Summer YancyG | 28 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 46% to play · 10+ pts 36% · 2+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Kayla JohnsonG | 26 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Lourdes Da Silva CostaF | 25 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Madison BobG | 23 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Trinity MassenburgF | 14 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 55% | |||||
Missed the last game: Summer Yancy (32 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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