Who will win Fairfield vs Oregon St?
The model gives Fairfield a 59% chance to beat Oregon State, with a projected score of Fairfield 72, Oregon St 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fairfield | |||||
| L'AmoreauxG · 37 min | 20.4 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 20+ 51% | |
| AndersenF · 32 min | 14.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 15+ 43% | |
| CoeF · 25 min | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 10+ 52% | |
| McCarthyF · 18 min | 9.1 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 10+ 41% | |
 Oregon St | |||||
| VillaG · 31 min | 17.4 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 15+ 63% | |
| YoungG · 30 min | 11.2 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 10+ 57% | |
| ShulerG · 33 min | 10.7 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 10+ 53% | |
| Alonso-BasurtoF · 28 min | 7.4 | 7.7 | 0.8 | 5+ 68% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kaety L'Amoreaux: Fairfield 42%Oregon St 58%
The white mark is the call with her: Fairfield 59%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Fairfield without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairfield | ||||
| Kaety L'Amoreaux | 5.5 | 42% | −17 | 69–72 |
| Meghan Andersen | 3.9 | 47% | −12 | 70–71 |
| Cyanne Coe | 3.3 | 49% | −10 | 70–71 |
| Jillian Huerter | 2.0 | 53% | −6 | 71–70 |
| Oregon St | ||||
| Kennedie Shuler | 3.7 | 70% | +11 | 74–67 |
| Jenna Villa | 3.2 | 69% | +10 | 73–67 |
| Lara Alonso-Basurto | 2.1 | 66% | +7 | 73–68 |
| Taylor Young | 0.7 | 61% | +2 | 72–69 |
Change is in Fairfield's win chance, in points. Scores read Fairfield, then Oregon St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Fairfield 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 69-67at Seton Hall
- Nov 8W 74-50vs Vermont
- Nov 6W 90-63vs Binghamton
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 77.7 and allowing 60.0
Oregon St 2-1LWW
- Nov 11W 77-53vs Northwest Nazarene
- Nov 8W 85-64vs E Washington
- Nov 4L 77-79vs CA Baptist
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 79.7 and allowing 65.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Fairfield | Oregon St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.2 37th | 100.3 71st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 87.9 73rd | 92.5 141st |
| Possessions a game | 71.5 225th | 70.4 321st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.2% 9th | 48.0% 49th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.0% 314th | 46.2% 228th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.2% 74th | 23.1% 148th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 197th | 31.8% 237th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 303rd | 0.24 29th |
The widest gap: Fairfield's offense (37th) against Oregon St's defense (141st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Fairfield 34, Oregon St 33
- First-half margin
- Fairfield by 1.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.8
- Projected second half
- Fairfield 38, Oregon St 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Fairfield, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 27.3 allowed
- Oregon St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 38.7 scored, 29.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Fairfield
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaety L'AmoreauxG | 37 | 20.4 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 |
| 20+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Meghan AndersenF | 32 | 14.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Paige KohlerG | 25 | 8.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Jillian HuerterG | 25 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Cyanne CoeF | 25 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Lana McCarthyF | 18 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Milou van VlietF | 17 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 50% to play · 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Addison RhodesG | 14 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
Missed the last game: Milou van Vliet (21 min a game).
Oregon St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedie ShulerG | 33 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 54% · 6+ ast 45% | |||||
| Jenna VillaG | 31 | 17.4 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 2+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Taylor YoungG | 30 | 11.2 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Lara Alonso-BasurtoF | 28 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 8+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Evelini SmithF | 19 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Katelyn FieldG | 15 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Ashley UusitaloG | 11 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 28% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Maggie WarpusF | 10 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 51% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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