Ball State at UIC
Women's · Saturday, November 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at Credit Union 1 Arena. Ball State our rank 120 · 1-2; UIC our rank 150 · 3-1.
Who will win Ball State vs UIC?
The model gives UIC a 52% chance to beat Ball State, with a projected score of UIC 73, Ball State 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UIC | |||||
| ColemanF · 27 min | 16.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 15+ 60% | |
| ClaytonG · 30 min | 11.8 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 10+ 61% | |
| FosterG · 28 min | 10.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 51% | |
| KhedrG · 22 min | 8.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 10+ 38% | |
| Ball State | |||||
| KingeryG · 36 min | 16.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 15+ 60% | |
| BarnesG · 32 min | 16.7 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 15+ 59% | |
| TowersF · 25 min | 15.4 | 9.2 | 1.0 | 15+ 51% | |
| NormanG · 34 min | 7.6 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 5+ 70% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Julia Coleman: Ball State 55%UIC 45%
The white mark is the call with her: UIC 52%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UIC without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UIC | ||||
| Julia Coleman | 2.2 | 45% | −7 | 73–72 |
| Evyn Carrier | 1.2 | 48% | −4 | 73–72 |
| Lyla Kahrimanovic | 0.8 | 50% | −2 | 73–73 |
| Nevaeh Foster | 0.7 | 50% | −2 | 73–73 |
| Ball State | ||||
| Tessa Towers | 3.5 | 65% | +13 | 71–75 |
| Grace Kingery | 2.7 | 63% | +11 | 71–74 |
| Aniss Tagayi | 1.7 | 59% | +7 | 71–74 |
| Karsyn Norman | 1.4 | 58% | +6 | 72–74 |
Change is in UIC's win chance, in points. Scores read Ball State, then UIC. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Ball State 1-2WLL
- Nov 12L 73-94vs LouisvilleCovered +22.5 · Over 146.5
- Nov 7L 71-78vs High Point
- Nov 2W 84-74vs Arkansas St
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 76.0 and allowing 82.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
UIC 3-1LWWW
- Nov 11W 87-50vs Chicago St
- Nov 8W 76-71vs Northwestern
- Nov 5W 71-58at Robert Morris
- Nov 2L 34-81at Ohio State
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 67.0 and allowing 65.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Ball State | UIC | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.4 75th | 94.1 126th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.8 214th | 94.7 186th |
| Possessions a game | 74.9 14th | 70.4 321st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.9% 214th | 44.4% 252nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.9% 358th | 43.0% 43rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.0% 223rd | 23.5% 183rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.7% 92nd | 36.8% 35th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 26th | 0.21 210th |
The widest gap: Ball State's offense (75th) against UIC's defense (186th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Ball State 34, UIC 35
- First-half margin
- UIC by 0.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.9
- Projected second half
- Ball State 38, UIC 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Ball State, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 31.3 scored, 38.7 allowed
- UIC, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 34.5 scored, 32.2 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Ball State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace KingeryG | 36 | 16.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 3.0 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 52% · 3+ threes 52% | |||||
| Karsyn NormanG | 34 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 70% · 3+ reb 43% · 5+ ast 50% | |||||
| Lilli BarnesG | 32 | 16.7 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 7+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Tessa TowersF | 25 | 15.4 | 9.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 9+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Aniss TagayiG | 23 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Zhen VerburgtG | 18 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Faith WalkerG | 17 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 15% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Helen HolleyG | 16 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
UIC
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tutu ClaytonG | 30 | 11.8 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 50% · 6+ ast 45% | |||||
| Miyah BrownG | 30 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Nevaeh FosterG | 28 | 10.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Julia ColemanF | 27 | 16.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 6+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Salma KhedrG | 22 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Evyn CarrierC | 18 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 7+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Magdalena WinterC | 18 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Aileen Becerril LanderosG | 12 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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