Illinois at Ball State
Women's · Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 6:30 PM ET at Worthen Arena. Illinois AP 22, our rank 16 · 2-0; Ball State our rank 120 · 1-2.
Who will win Illinois vs Ball State?
The model gives Illinois a 95% chance to beat Ball State, with a projected score of Illinois 86, Ball State 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | |||||
| ParchmentF · 24 min | 15.8 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 15+ 54% | |
| WallaceF · 26 min | 15.6 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 15+ 53% | |
| DolanG · 25 min | 11.2 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 10+ 57% | |
| GuytonG · 20 min | 8.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 10+ 34% | |
| Ball State | |||||
| KingeryG · 32 min | 14.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 15+ 43% | |
| BarnesG · 30 min | 14.1 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 15+ 43% | |
| TowersF · 24 min | 13.6 | 8.1 | 0.8 | 15+ 40% | |
| NormanG · 31 min | 6.4 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Cearah Parchment: Illinois 88%Ball State 12%
The white mark is the call with her: Illinois 95%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Illinois without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | ||||
| Cearah Parchment | 5.3 | 88% | −7 | 84–69 |
| Berry Wallace | 5.1 | 89% | −6 | 84–68 |
| Gretchen Dolan | 3.9 | 90% | −5 | 84–68 |
| Destiny Jackson | 3.9 | 90% | −5 | 84–68 |
| Ball State | ||||
| Tessa Towers | 3.5 | 97% | +2 | 88–64 |
| Grace Kingery | 2.7 | 97% | +2 | 88–65 |
| Aniss Tagayi | 1.7 | 96% | +1 | 87–65 |
| Karsyn Norman | 1.4 | 96% | +1 | 87–65 |
Change is in Illinois's win chance, in points. Scores read Illinois, then Ball State. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Illinois 2-0WW
- Nov 7W 99-28vs SouthernCovered −34.5 · Under 129.5
- Nov 4W 84-50vs Detroit Mercy
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 91.5 and allowing 39.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Ball State 1-2WLL
- Nov 12L 73-94vs LouisvilleCovered +22.5 · Over 146.5
- Nov 7L 71-78vs High Point
- Nov 2W 84-74vs Arkansas St
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 76.0 and allowing 82.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Illinois | Ball State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 113.6 11th | 99.4 75th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 80.4 21st | 95.8 214th |
| Possessions a game | 71.8 200th | 74.9 14th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.2% 42nd | 44.9% 214th |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.1% 21st | 49.9% 358th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.3% 163rd | 24.0% 223rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 37.7% 19th | 34.7% 92nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 12th | 0.24 26th |
The widest gap: Illinois's offense (11th) against Ball State's defense (214th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Illinois 42, Ball State 30
- First-half margin
- Illinois by 11.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.1
- Projected second half
- Illinois 44, Ball State 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Illinois, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 41.0 scored, 20.5 allowed
- Ball State, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 31.3 scored, 38.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Illinois
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berry WallaceF | 26 | 15.6 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Gretchen DolanG | 25 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Destiny JacksonG | 24 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 53% · 6+ ast 49% | |||||
| Cearah ParchmentF | 24 | 15.8 | 7.4 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 8+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Jasmine Brown-HaggerG | 21 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Aaliyah GuytonG | 20 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 2+ ast 57% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Maddie WebberG | 19 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 2+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Manuella AlvesF | 14 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
Ball State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace KingeryG | 32 | 14.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 42% · 3+ threes 43% | |||||
| Karsyn NormanG | 31 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 57% · 4+ ast 50% | |||||
| Lilli BarnesG | 30 | 14.1 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Tessa TowersF | 24 | 13.6 | 8.1 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 8+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Aniss TagayiG | 22 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Zhen VerburgtG | 19 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Faith WalkerG | 17 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 15% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
| Helen HolleyG | 16 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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