SE Missouri at Illinois
Women's · Sunday, November 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at State Farm Center. SE Missouri our rank 324 · 0-3; Illinois AP 22, our rank 16 · 2-0.
Who will win SE Missouri vs Illinois?
The model gives Illinois a >99% chance to beat Southeast Missouri State, with a projected score of Illinois 91, SE Missouri 43.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | |||||
| ParchmentF · 23 min | 16.5 | 7.8 | 1.2 | 15+ 58% | |
| WallaceF · 25 min | 16.0 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 15+ 55% | |
| DolanG · 24 min | 11.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 10+ 59% | |
| GuytonG · 19 min | 8.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 10+ 37% | |
| SE Missouri | |||||
| NewlandG · 24 min | 7.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 10+ 33% | |
| JonesG · 22 min | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5+ 46% | |
| BondererG · 24 min | 4.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 5+ 45% | |
| BuckmanG · 21 min | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 5+ 39% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Cearah Parchment: SE Missouri <1%Illinois >99%
The white mark is the call with her: Illinois >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Illinois without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | ||||
| Cearah Parchment | 5.3 | >99% | 0 | 46–88 |
| Berry Wallace | 5.1 | >99% | 0 | 45–89 |
| Gretchen Dolan | 3.9 | >99% | 0 | 45–89 |
| Destiny Jackson | 3.9 | >99% | 0 | 45–89 |
Change is in Illinois's win chance, in points. Scores read SE Missouri, then Illinois. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
SE Missouri 0-3LLL
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 47.3 and allowing 75.0
Illinois 2-0WW
- Nov 7W 99-28vs SouthernCovered −34.5 · Under 129.5
- Nov 4W 84-50vs Detroit Mercy
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 91.5 and allowing 39.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| SE Missouri | Illinois | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 78.3 334th | 113.6 11th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.2 259th | 80.4 21st |
| Possessions a game | 72.7 115th | 71.8 200th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.7% 295th | 48.2% 42nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.3% 323rd | 42.1% 21st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.7% 310th | 23.3% 163rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.5% 252nd | 37.7% 19th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 278th | 0.26 12th |
The widest gap: Illinois's defense (21st) against SE Missouri's offense (334th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- SE Missouri 18, Illinois 46
- First-half margin
- Illinois by 27.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.5
- Projected second half
- SE Missouri 25, Illinois 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- SE Missouri, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 21.3 scored, 34.3 allowed
- Illinois, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 41.0 scored, 20.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
SE Missouri
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jolie BondererG | 24 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Zoe NewlandG | 24 | 7.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Carrington JonesG | 22 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Hailey BuckmanG | 21 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Dacarra WardF | 21 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 42% | |||||
| Madison AyersG | 20 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Karris AllenG | 20 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Yar ManyielF | 19 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 15% · 3+ reb 49% | |||||
Illinois
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berry WallaceF | 25 | 16.0 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Gretchen DolanG | 24 | 11.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Destiny JacksonG | 23 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 56% · 7+ ast 48% | |||||
| Cearah ParchmentF | 23 | 16.5 | 7.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 8+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Jasmine Brown-HaggerG | 21 | 7.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Aaliyah GuytonG | 19 | 8.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ ast 42% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Maddie WebberG | 18 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 2+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Manuella AlvesF | 15 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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