SE Missouri 40, Missouri St 77
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Great Southern Bank Arena. SE Missouri our rank 324 · 0-3; Missouri St our rank 55 · 3-0.
Who won SE Missouri vs Missouri St?
Final: Missouri State 77, Southeast Missouri State 40. Before tip-off the model gave Missouri State a 96% chance to win, with a projected margin of 23.9 points for Missouri State. Lainie Douglas scored 15 for Missouri St; Madison Ayers had 8 for SE Missouri.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Lainie Douglas: SE Missouri 7%Missouri St 93%
The white mark is the call with her: Missouri St 96%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Missouri St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri St | ||||
| Lainie Douglas | 3.4 | 93% | −3 | 69–89 |
| Kaemyn Bekemeier | 3.1 | 93% | −3 | 68–89 |
| Maiesha Washington | 2.2 | 94% | −2 | 68–90 |
| Hannah Linthacum | 1.9 | 94% | −2 | 68–90 |
Change is in Missouri St's win chance, in points. Scores read SE Missouri, then Missouri St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
SE Missouri
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Missouri St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| SE Missouri | Missouri St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 78.3 334th | 98.8 83rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 98.2 259th | 81.9 34th |
| Possessions a game | 72.7 115th | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.7% 295th | 46.7% 111th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.3% 323rd | 41.1% 12th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.7% 310th | 22.4% 91st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.5% 252nd | 37.6% 22nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 278th | 0.23 79th |
The widest gap: Missouri St's defense (34th) against SE Missouri's offense (334th), of 363 teams.
First half
Missouri St led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 0.8 points and the total by 19.8.
- At halftime
- SE Missouri 21, Missouri St 34
- Projected halftime score
- SE Missouri 31, Missouri St 44
- First-half margin
- Missouri St by 13.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
SE Missouri
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hailey BuckmanG | 32 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Yar ManyielF | 28 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Madison AyersG | 25 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Zoe NewlandG | 22 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dacarra WardF | 19 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Jolie BondererG | 19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Faye WilliamsF | 17 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Carrington JonesG | 16 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Karris AllenG | 15 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Missouri St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannah LinthacumF | 22 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Landon ForbesG | 22 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Lainie DouglasF | 21 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| Kaemyn BekemeierG | 20 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Macie MaysG | 19 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Maiesha WashingtonF | 18 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Nevaeh LuciousF | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Antil SnoddyG | 16 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| JaNyla BushG | 15 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |