Marquette at Missouri St
Women's · Friday, November 13, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Great Southern Bank Arena. Marquette our rank 92 · 2-1; Missouri St our rank 55 · 3-0.
Who will win Marquette vs Missouri St?
The model gives Missouri State a 82% chance to beat Marquette, with a projected score of Missouri St 72, Marquette 60.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri St | |||||
| BekemeierG · 25 min | 12.6 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 15+ 34% | |
| DouglasF · 22 min | 10.8 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 10+ 54% | |
| WashingtonF · 20 min | 7.5 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 5+ 69% | |
| MaysG · 23 min | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 5+ 67% | |
| Marquette | |||||
| ViceF · 27 min | 13.3 | 7.0 | 1.9 | 15+ 38% | |
| GivensG · 24 min | 9.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 10+ 44% | |
| Han LinG · 20 min | 8.9 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 10+ 40% | |
| AspG · 26 min | 7.2 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 5+ 67% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Lainie Douglas: Marquette 26%Missouri St 74%
The white mark is the call with her: Missouri St 82%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Missouri St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri St | ||||
| Lainie Douglas | 3.4 | 74% | −8 | 62–70 |
| Kaemyn Bekemeier | 3.1 | 75% | −7 | 62–70 |
| Maiesha Washington | 2.2 | 77% | −5 | 62–71 |
| Hannah Linthacum | 1.9 | 78% | −4 | 61–71 |
| Marquette | ||||
| Halle Vice | 3.8 | 89% | +7 | 59–74 |
| Kayl Petersen | 2.5 | 87% | +5 | 59–73 |
| MacKenzie Givens | 2.1 | 86% | +4 | 59–73 |
| Jordan Meulemans | 1.2 | 85% | +3 | 60–72 |
Change is in Missouri St's win chance, in points. Scores read Marquette, then Missouri St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Marquette 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 87-54vs Presbyterian
- Nov 7L 79-87vs MinnesotaCovered +12.5 · Over 134.5
- Nov 3W 80-42vs Miss Valley St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 82.0 and allowing 61.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Missouri St 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 76-48at Wichita St
- Nov 7W 72-37at Wyoming
- Nov 2W 77-40vs SE Missouri
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 75.0 and allowing 41.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Marquette | Missouri St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.0 81st | 98.8 83rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 91.0 121st | 81.9 34th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 234th | 72.0 179th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.1% 24th | 46.7% 111th |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.7% 131st | 41.1% 12th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.5% 259th | 22.4% 91st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.1% 121st | 37.6% 22nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 92nd | 0.23 79th |
The widest gap: Missouri St's defense (34th) against Marquette's offense (81st), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Marquette 28, Missouri St 35
- First-half margin
- Missouri St by 6.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.7
- Projected second half
- Marquette 32, Missouri St 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Marquette, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 39.7 scored, 28.0 allowed
- Missouri St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 34.3 scored, 23.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Marquette
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halle ViceF | 27 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 7+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Kinley AspG | 26 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Jordan MeulemansG | 25 | 6.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 25% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Kayl PetersenF | 25 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| MacKenzie GivensG | 24 | 9.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Yu Han LinG | 20 | 8.9 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 2+ ast 55% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Brooklyn HallG | 18 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Amina TraoreC | 14 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 52% | |||||
Missouri St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaemyn BekemeierG | 25 | 12.6 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Macie MaysG | 23 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Landon ForbesG | 22 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Lainie DouglasF | 22 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Hannah LinthacumF | 20 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 43% | |||||
| Maiesha WashingtonF | 20 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Nevaeh LuciousF | 16 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| JaNyla BushG | 15 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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