Missouri St at Saint Louis
Women's · Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Chaifetz Arena. Missouri St our rank 55 · 3-0; Saint Louis our rank 195 · 2-1.
Who will win Missouri St vs Saint Louis?
The model gives Missouri State a 89% chance to beat Saint Louis, with a projected score of Missouri St 75, Saint Louis 60.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri St | |||||
| BekemeierG · 24 min | 12.9 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 15+ 36% | |
| DouglasF · 22 min | 11.2 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 10+ 57% | |
| WashingtonF · 19 min | 7.7 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 10+ 32% | |
| MaysG · 22 min | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 5+ 69% | |
| Saint Louis | |||||
| BaileyG · 33 min | 18.2 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 20+ 40% | |
| BoldsF · 28 min | 11.5 | 6.7 | 1.5 | 10+ 59% | |
| DenisG · 32 min | 9.3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 10+ 43% | |
| BergstromG · 30 min | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 10+ 31% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Lainie Douglas: Missouri St 83%Saint Louis 17%
The white mark is the call with her: Missouri St 89%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Missouri St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri St | ||||
| Lainie Douglas | 3.4 | 83% | −6 | 73–62 |
| Kaemyn Bekemeier | 3.1 | 83% | −6 | 73–62 |
| Maiesha Washington | 2.2 | 85% | −4 | 74–61 |
| Hannah Linthacum | 1.9 | 86% | −3 | 74–61 |
| Saint Louis | ||||
| Alyssa Koerkenmeier | 1.8 | 91% | +2 | 76–59 |
| D'Myjah Bolds | 0.9 | 90% | +1 | 76–60 |
| Tyonna Bailey | 0.6 | 90% | +1 | 75–60 |
Change is in Missouri St's win chance, in points. Scores read Missouri St, then Saint Louis. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Missouri St 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 76-48at Wichita St
- Nov 7W 72-37at Wyoming
- Nov 2W 77-40vs SE Missouri
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 75.0 and allowing 41.7
Saint Louis 2-1LWW
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 76.3 and allowing 70.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Missouri St | Saint Louis | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.8 83rd | 91.1 162nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 81.9 34th | 97.6 249th |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 179th | 73.5 71st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.7% 111th | 48.5% 34th |
| Opponents' shooting | 41.1% 12th | 43.3% 56th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.4% 91st | 23.7% 200th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 37.6% 22nd | 29.6% 329th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 79th | 0.21 186th |
The widest gap: Missouri St's offense (83rd) against Saint Louis's defense (249th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Missouri St 36, Saint Louis 28
- First-half margin
- Missouri St by 8.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.1
- Projected second half
- Missouri St 39, Saint Louis 32
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Missouri St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 34.3 scored, 23.3 allowed
- Saint Louis, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 35.3 scored, 34.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Missouri St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaemyn BekemeierG | 24 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Macie MaysG | 22 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Landon ForbesG | 22 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Lainie DouglasF | 22 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 6+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Hannah LinthacumF | 20 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 45% | |||||
| Maiesha WashingtonF | 19 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
| Nevaeh LuciousF | 16 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| JaNyla BushG | 15 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
Saint Louis
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyonna BaileyG | 33 | 18.2 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 20+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Jahda DenisG | 32 | 9.3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Mia BergstromG | 30 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| D'Myjah BoldsF | 28 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 7+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Alyssa KoerkenmeierC | 24 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Jameela JamesC | 16 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 42% | |||||
| Peyton OlufsonG | 15 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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