Illinois St at Saint Louis
Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Chaifetz Arena. Illinois St our rank 117 · 4-0; Saint Louis our rank 195 · 2-1.
Who will win Illinois St vs Saint Louis?
The model gives Illinois State a 63% chance to beat Saint Louis, with a projected score of Illinois St 74, Saint Louis 70.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois St | |||||
| ThomasF · 31 min | 16.0 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 15+ 55% | |
| ChickenF · 30 min | 14.2 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 15+ 44% | |
| MporokosoG · 28 min | 12.8 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 15+ 35% | |
| FaytaG · 35 min | 12.2 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 10+ 64% | |
| Saint Louis | |||||
| BaileyG · 35 min | 21.5 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 20+ 57% | |
| BoldsF · 30 min | 13.4 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 15+ 39% | |
| DenisG · 34 min | 11.0 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 10+ 55% | |
| BergstromG · 31 min | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 10+ 40% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Trista Fayta: Illinois St 57%Saint Louis 43%
The white mark is the call with her: Illinois St 63%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Illinois St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois St | ||||
| Trista Fayta | 2.1 | 57% | −6 | 73–71 |
| Nevaeh Thomas | 1.8 | 58% | −5 | 73–71 |
| Hannah Chicken | 1.4 | 59% | −4 | 74–71 |
| Grace Nelson | 1.0 | 60% | −3 | 74–71 |
| Saint Louis | ||||
| Alyssa Koerkenmeier | 1.8 | 69% | +6 | 75–69 |
| D'Myjah Bolds | 0.9 | 66% | +3 | 75–70 |
| Tyonna Bailey | 0.6 | 65% | +2 | 75–70 |
Change is in Illinois St's win chance, in points. Scores read Illinois St, then Saint Louis. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Illinois St 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 75-66vs Green Bay
- Nov 7W 96-54vs Augustana (IL)
- Nov 5W 91-87at Dayton
- Nov 2W 106-69vs Chicago St
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 92.0 and allowing 69.0
Saint Louis 2-1LWW
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 76.3 and allowing 70.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Illinois St | Saint Louis | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.9 91st | 91.1 162nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 94.2 175th | 97.6 249th |
| Possessions a game | 72.5 135th | 73.5 71st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.0% 50th | 48.5% 34th |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.4% 240th | 43.3% 56th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.8% 118th | 23.7% 200th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.2% 207th | 29.6% 329th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 55th | 0.21 186th |
The widest gap: Illinois St's offense (91st) against Saint Louis's defense (249th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Illinois St 35, Saint Louis 33
- First-half margin
- Illinois St by 2.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.5
- Projected second half
- Illinois St 39, Saint Louis 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Illinois St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 42.8 scored, 32.8 allowed
- Saint Louis, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 35.3 scored, 34.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Illinois St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trista FaytaG | 35 | 12.2 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 56% · 5+ ast 56% | |||||
| Nevaeh ThomasF | 31 | 16.0 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 8+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Hannah ChickenF | 30 | 14.2 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 9+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Danyella MporokosoG | 28 | 12.8 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Jaeden PrattG | 23 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Grace NelsonG | 20 | 9.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Madison AustinF | 11 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 15% | |||||
| Chloe SpreenG | 10 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
Saint Louis
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyonna BaileyG | 35 | 21.5 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| 20+ pts 57% · 7+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jahda DenisG | 34 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 53% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Mia BergstromG | 31 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| D'Myjah BoldsF | 30 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 8+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Alyssa KoerkenmeierC | 24 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 70% · 7+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Jameela JamesC | 16 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 47% | |||||
| Peyton OlufsonG | 14 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…