Chicago St 69, Illinois St 106
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at CEFCU Arena. Chicago St our rank 354 · 2-3; Illinois St our rank 117 · 4-0.
Who won Chicago St vs Illinois St?
Final: Illinois State 106, Chicago State 69. Before tip-off the model gave Illinois State a 96% chance to win, with a projected margin of 24.2 points for Illinois State. Nevaeh Thomas scored 23 for Illinois St; Keona McGee had 17 for Chicago St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Trista Fayta: Chicago St 5%Illinois St 95%
The white mark is the call with her: Illinois St 96%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Illinois St without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois St | ||||
| Trista Fayta | 2.1 | 95% | −1 | 71–93 |
| Nevaeh Thomas | 1.8 | 95% | −1 | 70–93 |
| Hannah Chicken | 1.4 | 95% | −1 | 70–93 |
| Grace Nelson | 1.0 | 95% | −1 | 70–93 |
Change is in Illinois St's win chance, in points. Scores read Chicago St, then Illinois St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Chicago St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Illinois St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Chicago St | Illinois St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 78.1 335th | 97.9 91st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.1 360th | 94.2 175th |
| Possessions a game | 75.2 10th | 72.5 135th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 42.2% 336th | 48.0% 50th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.0% 359th | 46.4% 240th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.0% 131st | 22.8% 118th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 26.8% 361st | 32.2% 207th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 35th | 0.24 55th |
The widest gap: Illinois St's offense (91st) against Chicago St's defense (360th), of 363 teams.
First half
Illinois St led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 7.1 points and the total by 7.6.
- At halftime
- Chicago St 32, Illinois St 53
- Projected halftime score
- Chicago St 32, Illinois St 46
- First-half margin
- Illinois St by 13.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 77.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Chicago St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mazzy O'BrienG | 26 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Keona McGeeG | 25 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Marisa GantG | 23 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Aunyai' DeereG | 22 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Mia CarterG | 21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Kitali YoumansG | 18 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Chloe SiscoG | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyara ChampagneG | 15 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jade Hamilton-GillC | 14 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Illinois St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trista FaytaG | 25 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevaeh ThomasF | 22 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| Danyella MporokosoG | 21 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| Kennedy StowersF | 20 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Grace NelsonG | 19 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Hannah ChickenF | 16 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Jaeden PrattG | 16 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Madison AustinF | 14 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jenna Van SchaikG | 14 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |