South Dakota at Chicago St
Women's · Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Jones Convocation Center. South Dakota our rank 130 · 3-0; Chicago St our rank 354 · 2-3.
Who will win South Dakota vs Chicago St?
The model gives South Dakota a 96% chance to beat Chicago State, with a projected score of South Dakota 77, Chicago St 55.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota | |||||
| JoyceG · 29 min | 14.3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 15+ 44% | |
| WilliamsonF · 25 min | 11.1 | 7.8 | 1.0 | 10+ 56% | |
| RobinsonG · 19 min | 9.5 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 10+ 45% | |
| SchlagelG · 26 min | 8.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 10+ 35% | |
| Chicago St | |||||
| McGeeG · 24 min | 10.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 10+ 53% | |
| GantG · 28 min | 8.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 10+ 34% | |
| ChampagneG · 14 min | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 5+ 56% | |
| O'BrienG · 21 min | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 5+ 47% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Molly Joyce: South Dakota 95%Chicago St 5%
The white mark is the call with her: South Dakota 96%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | South Dakota without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota | ||||
| Molly Joyce | 1.5 | 95% | −1 | 77–55 |
| Bri Robinson | 1.2 | 96% | 0 | 77–55 |
| Tori Schlagel | 1.2 | 96% | 0 | 77–55 |
| Jenna Hopp | 0.9 | 96% | 0 | 77–55 |
Change is in South Dakota's win chance, in points. Scores read South Dakota, then Chicago St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
South Dakota 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 54-49vs Creighton
- Nov 6W 68-56vs UT Rio Grande
- Nov 2W 95-38vs York (NE)
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 72.3 and allowing 47.7
Chicago St 2-3LWLWL
- Nov 11L 50-87at UIC
- Nov 10W 75-60vs Huston Tillotson
- Nov 7L 51-106vs Texas St
- Nov 5W 83-62vs Miss Valley St
- Nov 2L 69-106at Illinois St
- Last five
- 2–3, scoring 65.6 and allowing 84.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| South Dakota | Chicago St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 88.8 202nd | 78.1 335th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 87.3 69th | 108.1 360th |
| Possessions a game | 71.5 225th | 75.2 10th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 44.7% 232nd | 42.2% 336th |
| Opponents' shooting | 42.9% 39th | 50.0% 359th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 26.7% 335th | 23.0% 131st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.7% 184th | 26.8% 361st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.30 1st | 0.24 35th |
The widest gap: South Dakota's defense (69th) against Chicago St's offense (335th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- South Dakota 38, Chicago St 25
- First-half margin
- South Dakota by 13.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.6
- Projected second half
- South Dakota 40, Chicago St 30
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- South Dakota, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 35.0 scored, 23.7 allowed
- Chicago St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 5 · 31.6 scored, 40.4 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
South Dakota
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molly JoyceG | 29 | 14.3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Tori SchlagelG | 26 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Latazia WilliamsonF | 25 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 8+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Livi DownsG | 24 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Bri RobinsonG | 19 | 9.5 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Alyssa BartlettG | 18 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Jenna HoppG | 14 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Ava MillerF | 13 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
Chicago St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marisa GantG | 28 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Keona McGeeG | 24 | 10.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Aunyai' DeereG | 22 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 36% | |||||
| Mazzy O'BrienG | 21 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Mia CarterG | 20 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jade Hamilton-GillC | 18 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 5+ reb 54% | |||||
| Kyara ChampagneG | 14 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| Brianna HillG | 14 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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