Seattle U v Chicago St
Women's · Saturday, November 21, 2026, 9:15 PM ET at Alaska Airlines Arena. Seattle U our rank 323 · 2-2; Chicago St our rank 354 · 2-3.
Who will win Seattle U vs Chicago St?
The model gives Seattle U a 76% chance to beat Chicago State, with a projected score of Seattle U 74, Chicago St 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle U | |||||
| JonesF · 32 min | 17.9 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 20+ 38% | |
| NealeG · 29 min | 11.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 10+ 59% | |
| DucheminG · 20 min | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 5+ 68% | |
| FraserF · 28 min | 7.1 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 5+ 66% | |
| Chicago St | |||||
| McGeeG · 25 min | 12.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 15+ 34% | |
| GantG · 30 min | 9.7 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 10+ 46% | |
| ChampagneG · 13 min | 6.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 5+ 61% | |
| O'BrienG · 21 min | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 5+ 55% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Cristina Jones: Seattle U 72%Chicago St 28%
The white mark is the call with her: Seattle U 76%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Seattle U without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle U | ||||
| Cristina Jones | 1.4 | 72% | −4 | 73–66 |
Change is in Seattle U's win chance, in points. Scores read Seattle U, then Chicago St. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Seattle U 2-2WWLL
- Nov 11L 55-57at Cal Poly
- Nov 9L 48-92at Santa Barbara
- Nov 6W 80-55vs UC Riverside
- Nov 2W 63-62at New Mexico
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 61.5 and allowing 66.5
Chicago St 2-3LWLWL
- Nov 11L 50-87at UIC
- Nov 10W 75-60vs Huston Tillotson
- Nov 7L 51-106vs Texas St
- Nov 5W 83-62vs Miss Valley St
- Nov 2L 69-106at Illinois St
- Last five
- 2–3, scoring 65.6 and allowing 84.2
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Seattle U | Chicago St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 82.3 290th | 78.1 335th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 102.1 325th | 108.1 360th |
| Possessions a game | 72.3 148th | 75.2 10th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.2% 190th | 42.2% 336th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.4% 292nd | 50.0% 359th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.8% 209th | 23.0% 131st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.6% 40th | 26.8% 361st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 292nd | 0.24 35th |
The widest gap: Seattle U's offense (290th) against Chicago St's defense (360th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Seattle U 36, Chicago St 31
- First-half margin
- Seattle U by 4.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.2
- Projected second half
- Seattle U 39, Chicago St 35
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Seattle U, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 32.0 scored, 35.8 allowed
- Chicago St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 5 · 31.6 scored, 40.4 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Seattle U
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristina JonesF | 32 | 17.9 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 0.1 |
| 20+ pts 38% · 9+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Sophie BuzzardG | 30 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Alanna NealeG | 29 | 11.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Claire FraserF | 28 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Shelley DucheminG | 20 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 5+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Gabriela Escorial FerreroF | 18 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Erin SellersG | 16 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Dylan MogelG | 13 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| 2+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
Chicago St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marisa GantG | 30 | 9.7 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Keona McGeeG | 25 | 12.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Aunyai' DeereG | 22 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Mazzy O'BrienG | 21 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Mia CarterG | 20 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Jade Hamilton-GillC | 18 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 6+ reb 48% | |||||
| Brianna HillG | 13 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Kyara ChampagneG | 13 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 29% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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