N Dakota St at UTSA
Women's · Saturday, November 21, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at UTSA Convocation Center. N Dakota St our rank 85 · 1-3; UTSA our rank 114 · 1-2.
Who will win N Dakota St vs UTSA?
The model gives UTSA a 53% chance to beat North Dakota State, with a projected score of UTSA 63, N Dakota St 62.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | |||||
| AllenG · 28 min | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 10+ 49% | |
| MerchantG · 26 min | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 10+ 48% | |
| UdoF · 26 min | 9.4 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 10+ 43% | |
| RoblesPG · 29 min | 9.2 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 10+ 42% | |
| N Dakota St | |||||
| AspF · 34 min | 15.7 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 15+ 53% | |
| FrostG · 37 min | 12.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 10+ 65% | |
| SchillerG · 34 min | 10.0 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 10+ 48% | |
| HawkinsonG · 32 min | 7.9 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 10+ 33% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Idara Udo: N Dakota St 53%UTSA 47%
The white mark is the call with her: UTSA 53%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UTSA without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | ||||
| Idara Udo | 1.6 | 47% | −6 | 63–62 |
| Taylor Ross | 1.5 | 47% | −6 | 63–62 |
| Kierra Merchant | 1.5 | 48% | −5 | 63–62 |
| Praise Egharevba | 1.4 | 48% | −5 | 63–62 |
| N Dakota St | ||||
| Karrington Asp | 3.8 | 67% | +14 | 60–65 |
| Marisa Frost | 3.1 | 64% | +11 | 61–65 |
| Jocelyn Schiller | 2.2 | 61% | +8 | 61–64 |
| Miriley Simon | 1.7 | 59% | +6 | 62–64 |
Change is in UTSA's win chance, in points. Scores read N Dakota St, then UTSA. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
N Dakota St 1-3LWLL
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 65.8 and allowing 64.0
UTSA 1-2LLW
- Nov 11W 73-51vs Incarnate WordCovered −14.5 · Under 125.5
- Nov 8L 56-65at San Diego St
- Nov 6L 51-69at UNLV
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 60.0 and allowing 61.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| N Dakota St | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.2 80th | 91.2 159th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 90.0 107th | 87.0 66th |
| Possessions a game | 70.5 318th | 70.6 312th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.8% 105th | 45.2% 195th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.8% 194th | 45.0% 153rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.1% 235th | 25.9% 321st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 234th | 37.9% 16th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 255th | 0.18 331st |
The widest gap: N Dakota St's defense (107th) against UTSA's offense (159th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- N Dakota St 30, UTSA 30
- First-half margin
- UTSA by 0.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 59.5
- Projected second half
- N Dakota St 33, UTSA 33
- Second-half points, both teams
- 66.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- N Dakota St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 27.2 scored, 26.8 allowed
- UTSA, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 23.0 scored, 31.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
N Dakota St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marisa FrostG | 37 | 12.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Jocelyn SchillerG | 34 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 2+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Karrington AspF | 34 | 15.7 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 7+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Sophie HawkinsonG | 32 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Miriley SimonF | 25 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Elena LazarevicG | 17 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 31% to play · 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| McKenna JohnsonF | 14 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 48% | |||||
| Madelynn MunizG | 12 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 2+ reb 25% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Missed the last game: Elena Lazarevic (20 min a game).
UTSA
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adriana RoblesPG | 29 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Damara AllenG | 28 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Idara UdoF | 26 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Kierra MerchantG | 26 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Mia HammondsG | 24 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Taylor RossF | 19 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Praise EgharevbaF | 19 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
| Maya LintonG | 16 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 17% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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