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Probable Stats / Women's / Saturday, November 21

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Grand Canyon at SMU

Women's · Saturday, November 21, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Moody Coliseum (Dallas). Grand Canyon our rank 116 · 2-0; SMU our rank 147 · 4-0.

Who will win Grand Canyon vs SMU?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives SMU a 51% chance to beat Grand Canyon, with a projected score of SMU 65, Grand Canyon 65.

To winSMU 51%Grand Canyon 49%
Projected score65–65Grand Canyon, then SMU
Margin0.4SMU · no line posted
Total130.1no line posted
First half31–31SMU ahead 49%
Grand Canyon by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20SMU by 30Model: SMU by 0.4Grand Canyon by 30by 10by 10SMU by 30Model: SMU by 0.4

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.7% of the time in 7,540 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
SMU
Hagans Jr.G · 31 min16.64.03.615+ 58%
JamesG · 21 min9.92.42.210+ 47%
KingG · 20 min8.21.81.210+ 35%
KaneF · 23 min6.15.51.45+ 57%
Grand Canyon
YiechF · 29 min13.17.11.415+ 37%
FozG · 26 min10.63.32.410+ 52%
SallmanC · 24 min10.67.31.410+ 53%
MannG · 22 min10.02.32.010+ 48%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit her

Without Grace Ezebilo: Grand Canyon 56%SMU 44%

The white mark is the call with her: SMU 51%.

PlayerPoints a game she addsSMU without herChangeProjected score
SMU
Grace Ezebilo1.944%−766–64
Mailien Rolf1.147%−465–65
Zahra King0.948%−365–65
Theresa Hagans Jr.0.948%−365–65
Grand Canyon
Nyadieng Yiech2.561%+1064–66
Dasha Biriuk2.159%+864–66
T'yana Todd1.657%+664–66
Maya Foz1.356%+564–66

Change is in SMU's win chance, in points. Scores read Grand Canyon, then SMU. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Grand Canyon 2-0WW

    1. Nov 9W 81-74vs OregonCovered +9.5 · Over 137.5
    2. Nov 4W 77-55vs Jackson St
    Last 2
    2–0, scoring 79.0 and allowing 64.5
    Against the spread, this season
    1–0
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 0 under

    SMU 4-0WWWW

    1. Nov 11W 69-50vs Long Island
    2. Nov 8W 78-65vs East Texas A&M
    3. Nov 5W 66-54vs Hampton
    4. Nov 3W 72-36vs Le Moyne
    Last 4
    4–0, scoring 71.2 and allowing 51.2

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    Grand CanyonSMU
    Points scored per 100 possessions94.5 123rd88.1 216th
    Points allowed per 10090.6 117th88.3 82nd
    Possessions a game73.2 84th72.8 110th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)45.4% 180th45.1% 201st
    Opponents' shooting44.4% 116th43.8% 77th
    Turnovers, share of possessions23.2% 157th26.0% 323rd
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses33.1% 163rd36.7% 36th
    Free throws per shot0.26 9th0.16 360th

    The widest gap: Grand Canyon's defense (117th) against SMU's offense (216th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Grand Canyon 31, SMU 31
    First-half margin
    SMU by 0.2
    First-half points, both teams
    61.7
    Projected second half
    Grand Canyon 34, SMU 34
    Second-half points, both teams
    68.4
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Grand Canyon, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 2 · 46.0 scored, 25.0 allowed
    SMU, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 4 · 35.2 scored, 26.8 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Grand Canyon

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Dasha BiriukG299.63.81.51.4
    10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 42%
    Nyadieng YiechF2913.17.11.40.9
    15+ pts 37% · 7+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 54%
    T'yana ToddG279.72.21.40.9
    10+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 56%
    Maya FozG2610.63.32.40.7
    10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 45%
    Jana SallmanC2410.67.31.40.0
    10+ pts 53% · 8+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 39%
    Chloe MannG2210.02.32.00.9
    10+ pts 48% · 2+ ast 55% · 1+ threes 53%
    Ashlynn ChlarsonC133.53.20.20.1
    5+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 57%
    Ines ZouniaG123.61.81.00.4
    5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 35%

    SMU

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Theresa Hagans Jr.G3116.64.03.61.7
    15+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 47%
    Mailien RolfG244.83.71.40.4
    5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 38%
    Adja KaneF236.15.51.40.2
    5+ pts 57% · 6+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 39%
    Grace EzebiloF225.89.20.90.1
    5+ pts 55% · 9+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 22%
    Shania JamesG219.92.42.21.4
    10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 62%
    Zahra KingG208.21.81.21.0
    10+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 58%
    Camille NesmithC195.34.60.80.0
    5+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 19%
    Zoe OsbyF173.52.70.50.1
    47% to play · 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 48%

    Missed the last game: Zoe Osby (20 min a game).

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Sat, Nov 21

    All games
    1. 12 PMprojected 67-63James Madison at George Mason, women's: game page
    2. 1 PMprojected 62-63N Dakota St at UTSA, women's: game page
    3. 3 PMprojected 72-69Fairfield at Oregon St, women's: game page
    4. 5 PMprojected 68-71Alabama vs North Carolina, women's: game page
    5. 5 PMprojected 66-70Cincinnati at UNLV, women's: game page
    6. 7 PMprojected 74-63Duke at Columbia, women's: game page
    Grand Canyon next: vs Gonzaga, Fri, Nov 13 · 44%SMU next: vs Nicholls, Sun, Nov 15 · 92%Grand Canyon: schedule and oddsSMU: schedule and odds