Cincinnati at UNLV
Women's · Saturday, November 21, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at The Pavilion. Cincinnati our rank 96 · 2-1; UNLV our rank 93 · 1-2.
Who will win Cincinnati vs UNLV?
The model gives UNLV a 64% chance to beat Cincinnati, with a projected score of UNLV 70, Cincinnati 66.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.3% of the time in 7,507 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | |||||
| LottG · 34 min | 15.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 15+ 52% | |
| RolandF · 30 min | 12.4 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 10+ 64% | |
| ConstantG · 29 min | 9.7 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 10+ 46% | |
| WashenitzG · 24 min | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 10+ 32% | |
| Cincinnati | |||||
| DeVillaseeG · 30 min | 14.2 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 15+ 44% | |
| JahG · 26 min | 10.7 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 10+ 53% | |
| BullardC · 17 min | 6.8 | 5.3 | 0.3 | 5+ 64% | |
| JonesG · 26 min | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 5+ 60% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Meadow Roland: Cincinnati 47%UNLV 53%
The white mark is the call with her: UNLV 64%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | UNLV without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | ||||
| Meadow Roland | 3.4 | 53% | −11 | 67–68 |
| Jasmyn Lott | 2.4 | 56% | −8 | 67–69 |
| Marley Washenitz | 2.2 | 57% | −7 | 67–69 |
| Norah Moo | 1.8 | 58% | −6 | 67–69 |
| Cincinnati | ||||
| Caliyah DeVillasee | 3.0 | 73% | +9 | 64–72 |
| Naomi Benson | 1.5 | 69% | +5 | 65–71 |
| Jade Jones | 1.4 | 68% | +4 | 65–71 |
| Sahnya Jah | 1.2 | 68% | +4 | 65–71 |
Change is in UNLV's win chance, in points. Scores read Cincinnati, then UNLV. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Cincinnati 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 56-67vs Saint Joseph's
- Nov 7W 76-53vs Penn State
- Nov 4W 66-58vs East Texas A&M
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 66.0 and allowing 59.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Cincinnati | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.2 98th | 98.0 90th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 89.6 103rd | 90.1 110th |
| Possessions a game | 71.8 200th | 71.9 193rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 43.3% 302nd | 43.3% 304th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.3% 162nd | 45.7% 192nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.9% 56th | 24.5% 260th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.1% 216th | 35.5% 57th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 282nd | 0.23 81st |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Cincinnati 31, UNLV 33
- First-half margin
- UNLV by 2.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.3
- Projected second half
- Cincinnati 35, UNLV 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Cincinnati, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 31.3 scored, 27.7 allowed
- UNLV, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 30.0 scored, 35.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Cincinnati
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caliyah DeVillaseeG | 30 | 14.2 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 61% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Jade JonesG | 26 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Sahnya JahG | 26 | 10.7 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Reagan JacksonG | 18 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 32% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Naomi BensonF | 18 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 50% | |||||
| Amber BullardC | 17 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 57% | |||||
| Joya CrawfordG | 17 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Dee AlexanderF | 15 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
UNLV
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmyn LottG | 34 | 15.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Meadow RolandF | 30 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 3+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jayla ConstantG | 29 | 9.7 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Norah MooF | 26 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 8+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Marley WashenitzG | 24 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Trystan JamesF | 22 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Bergan KinnebrewG | 22 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Keonni LewisG | 10 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 2+ reb 33% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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