Seattle U 63, New Mexico 62
Final. Women's · Monday, November 2, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at The Pit. Seattle U our rank 323 · 2-2; New Mexico our rank 241 · 1-2.
Who won Seattle U vs New Mexico?
Final: Seattle U 63, New Mexico 62. Before tip-off the model gave Seattle U a 6% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 21.5 points for New Mexico. Cristina Jones scored 12 for Seattle U; Laila Abdurraqib had 20 for New Mexico.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Gracie Kelsey: Seattle U 7%New Mexico 93%
The white mark is the call with her: New Mexico 94%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | New Mexico without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | ||||
| Gracie Kelsey | 0.6 | 93% | −1 | 68–89 |
| Laila Abdurraqib | 0.6 | 94% | 0 | 68–89 |
| Seattle U | ||||
| Cristina Jones | 1.4 | 95% | +1 | 67–90 |
Change is in New Mexico's win chance, in points. Scores read Seattle U, then New Mexico. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…
Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Seattle U
No games yet this season: this is its first.
New Mexico
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Seattle U | New Mexico | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 82.3 290th | 87.7 225th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 102.1 325th | 99.6 295th |
| Possessions a game | 72.3 148th | 70.8 296th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.2% 190th | 45.5% 172nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.4% 292nd | 46.3% 234th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 23.8% 209th | 24.3% 254th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.6% 40th | 31.3% 264th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.19 292nd | 0.21 204th |
The widest gap: New Mexico's offense (225th) against Seattle U's defense (325th), of 363 teams.
First half
New Mexico led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 7.4 points and the total by 5.1.
- At halftime
- Seattle U 32, New Mexico 37
- Projected halftime score
- Seattle U 31, New Mexico 43
- First-half margin
- New Mexico by 12.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Seattle U
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claire FraserF | 38 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Cristina JonesF | 36 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| Alanna NealeG | 24 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Gabriela Escorial FerreroF | 23 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 0 |
| Shelley DucheminG | 22 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Erin SellersG | 22 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Sophie BuzzardG | 21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Milana NenadicF | 14 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 1 |
New Mexico
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Savannah StrickerG | 34 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Laila AbdurraqibG | 30 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 1 |
| Kate WernliG | 27 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Gracie KelseyF | 25 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Katie DuncanG | 24 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Drew JordonG | 24 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Mila ReynoldsF | 18 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Keiara CurtisG | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Maya ThompsonG | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |