New Mexico at BYU
Women's · Saturday, November 14, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Marriott Center. New Mexico our rank 241 · 1-2; BYU our rank 38 · 4-0.
Who will win New Mexico vs BYU?
The model gives BYU a >99% chance to beat New Mexico, with a projected score of BYU 85, New Mexico 51.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | |||||
| GibbG · 27 min | 14.7 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 15+ 47% | |
| HamlinG · 25 min | 14.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 15+ 46% | |
| WoolstonG · 25 min | 8.6 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 10+ 38% | |
| NotoaG · 18 min | 7.8 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 10+ 32% | |
| New Mexico | |||||
| AbdurraqibG · 24 min | 9.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 10+ 45% | |
| WernliG · 23 min | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 5+ 48% | |
| KelseyF · 22 min | 5.0 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 5+ 46% | |
| DuncanG · 26 min | 4.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 5+ 45% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Delaney Gibb: New Mexico 1%BYU 99%
The white mark is the call with her: BYU >99%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | BYU without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | ||||
| Delaney Gibb | 5.1 | 99% | −1 | 54–83 |
| Olivia Hamlin | 3.8 | 99% | −1 | 53–83 |
| Brinley Cannon | 3.6 | 99% | −1 | 53–84 |
| Kambree Taylor | 2.3 | 99% | −1 | 52–84 |
| New Mexico | ||||
| Gracie Kelsey | 0.6 | >99% | 0 | 51–86 |
| Laila Abdurraqib | 0.6 | >99% | 0 | 51–86 |
Change is in BYU's win chance, in points. Scores read New Mexico, then BYU. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
New Mexico 1-2LWL
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 62.0 and allowing 58.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| New Mexico | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 87.7 225th | 106.2 36th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.6 295th | 82.7 41st |
| Possessions a game | 70.8 296th | 72.9 103rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.5% 172nd | 47.5% 71st |
| Opponents' shooting | 46.3% 234th | 44.4% 120th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 24.3% 254th | 22.8% 119th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.3% 264th | 37.0% 31st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 204th | 0.16 356th |
The widest gap: BYU's offense (36th) against New Mexico's defense (295th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- New Mexico 23, BYU 42
- First-half margin
- BYU by 19.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.8
- Projected second half
- New Mexico 29, BYU 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- New Mexico, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 31.0 scored, 27.7 allowed
- BYU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 35.5 scored, 29.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
New Mexico
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie DuncanG | 26 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Laila AbdurraqibG | 24 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Kate WernliG | 23 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Gracie KelseyF | 22 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Savannah StrickerG | 21 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Drew JordonG | 20 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
| Valerie NorwoodG | 18 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
| Brynn EshooF | 15 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 43% | |||||
Missed the last game: Mila Reynolds (16 min a game).
BYU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delaney GibbG | 27 | 14.7 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Kailey WoolstonG | 25 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 2+ ast 57% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Olivia HamlinG | 25 | 14.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Brinley CannonG | 24 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Sydney BenallyG | 19 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 2+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Prasayus NotoaG | 18 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Kambree TaylorG | 17 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Bolanle YussufF | 16 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 7+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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