Colorado at New Mexico
Women's · Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at The Pit. Colorado our rank 36 · 3-0; New Mexico our rank 241 · 1-2.
Who will win Colorado vs New Mexico?
The model gives Colorado a 98% chance to beat New Mexico, with a projected score of Colorado 77, New Mexico 52.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 96.1% of the time in 10,929 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | |||||
| GreerF · 25 min | 13.8 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 15+ 42% | |
| WalkerG · 25 min | 11.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 10+ 59% | |
| AdlerC · 18 min | 10.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 10+ 48% | |
| SandersG · 24 min | 9.2 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 10+ 42% | |
| New Mexico | |||||
| AbdurraqibG · 25 min | 10.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 10+ 48% | |
| WernliG · 24 min | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5+ 51% | |
| DuncanG · 26 min | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 5+ 48% | |
| KelseyF · 22 min | 5.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 5+ 48% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Zyanna Walker: Colorado 95%New Mexico 5%
The white mark is the call with her: Colorado 98%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Colorado without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | ||||
| Zyanna Walker | 3.9 | 95% | −3 | 75–54 |
| Logyn Greer | 3.8 | 95% | −3 | 75–54 |
| Kennedy Sanders | 3.2 | 96% | −2 | 75–54 |
| Anete Adler | 2.1 | 97% | −1 | 76–53 |
| New Mexico | ||||
| Gracie Kelsey | 0.6 | 98% | 0 | 77–52 |
| Laila Abdurraqib | 0.6 | 98% | 0 | 77–52 |
Change is in Colorado's win chance, in points. Scores read Colorado, then New Mexico. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Colorado 3-0WWW
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 73.3 and allowing 49.7
New Mexico 1-2LWL
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 62.0 and allowing 58.7
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Colorado | New Mexico | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.9 52nd | 87.7 225th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 79.2 19th | 99.6 295th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 251st | 70.8 296th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.6% 116th | 45.5% 172nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 44.0% 87th | 46.3% 234th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 22.4% 88th | 24.3% 254th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.5% 146th | 31.3% 264th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.21 190th | 0.21 204th |
The widest gap: Colorado's offense (52nd) against New Mexico's defense (295th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Colorado 38, New Mexico 23
- First-half margin
- Colorado by 14.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.1
- Projected second half
- Colorado 39, New Mexico 29
- Second-half points, both teams
- 67.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Colorado, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 36.3 scored, 17.3 allowed
- New Mexico, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 31.0 scored, 27.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Colorado
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zyanna WalkerG | 25 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Logyn GreerF | 25 | 13.8 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Kennedy SandersG | 24 | 9.2 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 60% · 3+ ast 60% | |||||
| Mecailin MarshallG | 24 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Jade CrookC | 18 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Anete AdlerC | 18 | 10.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Claire O'ConnorG | 17 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Kira ReynoldsF | 12 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
New Mexico
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katie DuncanG | 26 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Laila AbdurraqibG | 25 | 10.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Kate WernliG | 24 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Gracie KelseyF | 22 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Savannah StrickerG | 21 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Drew JordonG | 21 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Valerie NorwoodG | 18 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
| Brynn EshooF | 15 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 43% | |||||
Missed the last game: Mila Reynolds (16 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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