Penn at Saint Joseph's
Women's · Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Michael J. Hagan '85 Arena. Penn our rank 91 · 4-0; Saint Joseph's our rank 60 · 2-0.
Who will win Penn vs Saint Joseph's?
The model gives Saint Joseph's a 77% chance to beat Pennsylvania, with a projected score of Saint Joseph's 72, Penn 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.9% of the time in 7,564 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Joseph's | |||||
| CaseyG · 31 min | 15.6 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 15+ 52% | |
| EvansF · 26 min | 12.1 | 6.8 | 1.2 | 10+ 63% | |
| StokesG · 21 min | 10.2 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 10+ 50% | |
| SneadG · 29 min | 9.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 10+ 44% | |
| Penn | |||||
| NjikeC · 27 min | 11.6 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 10+ 59% | |
| ThatcherG · 33 min | 11.2 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 10+ 57% | |
| GayleG · 30 min | 11.0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 10+ 55% | |
| SuttleG · 29 min | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 10+ 43% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Gabby Casey: Penn 34%Saint Joseph's 66%
The white mark is the call with her: Saint Joseph's 77%.
| Player | Points a game she adds | Saint Joseph's without her | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Joseph's | ||||
| Gabby Casey | 4.1 | 66% | −11 | 65–70 |
| Aleah Snead | 2.6 | 70% | −7 | 64–71 |
| Deja Evans | 2.5 | 71% | −6 | 64–71 |
| Jill Jekot | 2.0 | 72% | −5 | 64–71 |
| Penn | ||||
| Katie Collins | 2.5 | 82% | +5 | 62–74 |
| Tina Njike | 2.5 | 82% | +5 | 62–74 |
| Mataya Gayle | 1.9 | 81% | +4 | 62–73 |
| Brooke Suttle | 1.5 | 80% | +3 | 62–73 |
Change is in Saint Joseph's's win chance, in points. Scores read Penn, then Saint Joseph's. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Penn 4-0WWWW
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 81.2 and allowing 51.5
Saint Joseph's 2-0WW
- Nov 11W 67-56at Cincinnati
- Nov 7W 95-27vs Kutztown
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 81.0 and allowing 41.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Penn | Saint Joseph's | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.0 61st | 101.6 63rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 93.8 169th | 86.6 64th |
| Possessions a game | 69.5 352nd | 70.7 307th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.3% 40th | 46.1% 139th |
| Opponents' shooting | 45.9% 209th | 43.0% 41st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.5% 35th | 21.6% 43rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.7% 91st | 31.4% 257th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.17 352nd | 0.23 75th |
The widest gap: Saint Joseph's's offense (63rd) against Penn's defense (169th), of 363 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Penn 29, Saint Joseph's 35
- First-half margin
- Saint Joseph's by 5.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.1
- Projected second half
- Penn 34, Saint Joseph's 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 71.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Penn, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 38.0 scored, 25.0 allowed
- Saint Joseph's, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 43.0 scored, 19.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Penn
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel ThatcherG | 33 | 11.2 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Katie CollinsF | 31 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Mataya GayleG | 30 | 11.0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Brooke SuttleG | 29 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Tina NjikeC | 27 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 7+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Gabriella KelleyF | 14 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Ashna TambeG | 10 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 16% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
| Christina PhamG | 10 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
Saint Joseph's
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabby CaseyG | 31 | 15.6 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Aleah SneadG | 29 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 43% | |||||
| Jill JekotG | 28 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Deja EvansF | 26 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 7+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Kaylinn BetheaG | 22 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Rhian StokesG | 21 | 10.2 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Maddy PottsG | 16 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Jahzara GreenF | 16 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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