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Probable Stats / Women's / Wednesday, November 18

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Ole Miss at Ohio State

Women's · Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Schottenstein Center. Ole Miss AP 21, our rank 23 · 3-0; Ohio State AP 17, our rank 12 · 3-1.

Who will win Ole Miss vs Ohio State?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives Ohio State a 81% chance to beat Ole Miss, with a projected score of Ohio State 75, Ole Miss 64.

To winOhio State 81%Ole Miss 19%
Projected score64–75Ole Miss, then Ohio State
Margin11.0Ohio State · no line posted
Total139.0no line posted
First half30–36Ohio State ahead 73%
Ole Miss by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30Ohio State by 40Model: Ohio State by 11.0Ole Miss by 20Evenby 20Ohio State by 40Model: Ohio State by 11.0

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 80–90% have been right 85.0% of the time in 7,719 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 9.5 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Ohio State
CambridgeG · 30 min19.84.84.820+ 48%
LemmilaC · 26 min11.16.91.810+ 56%
WatsonG · 29 min10.12.32.410+ 49%
CambridgeG · 31 min10.05.62.610+ 48%
Ole Miss
CooperG · 22 min11.82.72.110+ 61%
CivilG · 25 min9.44.51.710+ 44%
TillmanG · 22 min9.45.11.110+ 44%
RichardG · 26 min9.21.92.810+ 42%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit her

Without Jaloni Cambridge: Ole Miss 37%Ohio State 63%

The white mark is the call with her: Ohio State 81%.

PlayerPoints a game she addsOhio State without herChangeProjected score
Ohio State
Jaloni Cambridge7.063%−1868–71
Kennedy Cambridge6.066%−1567–72
Elsa Lemmila5.268%−1367–72
Ava Watson4.470%−1166–73
Ole Miss
Talaysia Cooper4.990%+962–77
Jada Richard4.790%+962–77
Jaida Civil4.189%+862–77
Doneelah Washington3.888%+762–77

Change is in Ohio State's win chance, in points. Scores read Ole Miss, then Ohio State. A player's value is what the team is better by with her than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Ole Miss 3-0WWW

    1. Nov 11W 95-41vs UAlbanyCovered −30.5 · Over 128.5
    2. Nov 5W 72-51vs North AlabamaDidn't cover −44.5 · Under 131.5
    3. Nov 2W 80-38vs Alcorn St
    Last 3
    3–0, scoring 82.3 and allowing 43.3
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 1 under

    Ohio State 3-1WWWL

    1. Nov 12L 55-87vs UConnDidn't cover +9.5 · Under 147.5
    2. Nov 8W 91-57vs Mercyhurst
    3. Nov 5W 103-36vs C MichiganCovered −45.5 · Under 143.5
    4. Nov 2W 81-34vs UIC
    Last 4
    3–1, scoring 82.5 and allowing 53.5
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 2 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 363
    Ole MissOhio State
    Points scored per 100 possessions106.2 37th110.2 22nd
    Points allowed per 10078.3 13th75.3 6th
    Possessions a game72.6 129th74.7 18th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)47.5% 72nd47.3% 76th
    Opponents' shooting43.2% 53rd45.0% 149th
    Turnovers, share of possessions21.5% 32nd24.9% 278th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses33.6% 144th37.8% 18th
    Free throws per shot0.20 228th0.22 160th

    The widest gap: Ohio State's defense (6th) against Ole Miss's offense (37th), of 363 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Ole Miss 30, Ohio State 36
    First-half margin
    Ohio State by 6.3
    First-half points, both teams
    65.9
    Projected second half
    Ole Miss 34, Ohio State 39
    Second-half points, both teams
    73.1
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Ole Miss, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 3 · 35.3 scored, 21.0 allowed
    Ohio State, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 4 · 48.8 scored, 23.5 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 10,911 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 73.0% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.0 points on average. This season: 404 of 492 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Ole Miss

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Jada RichardG269.21.92.80.8
    10+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 50%
    Jaida CivilG259.44.51.70.6
    10+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 48%
    Talaysia CooperG2211.82.72.11.8
    10+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 49%
    Jade TillmanG229.45.11.10.5
    10+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 37%
    Doneelah WashingtonF218.54.41.20.5
    10+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 37%
    Knisha GodfreyG213.52.81.50.4
    5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 43%
    Maya AndersonG196.43.00.71.0
    5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 57%
    Rachael OkokohF183.53.80.30.0
    5+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 50%

    Ohio State

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Kennedy CambridgeG3110.05.62.61.1
    10+ pts 48% · 6+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 47%
    Jaloni CambridgeG3019.84.84.81.7
    20+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 49% · 5+ ast 50%
    Ava WatsonG2910.12.32.41.7
    10+ pts 49% · 3+ ast 42% · 2+ threes 47%
    Elsa LemmilaC2611.16.91.80.2
    10+ pts 56% · 7+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 51%
    Kylee KittsG257.56.31.30.4
    5+ pts 69% · 7+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 37%
    Adriana DiazF184.84.11.00.4
    5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 33%
    Bryn MartinG173.01.10.70.5
    5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 30% · 1+ threes 37%
    Sydney MobleyF135.62.60.30.2
    5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 15%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Wed, Nov 18

    All games
    1. 5 PMprojected 64-70Syracuse at Harvard, women's: game page
    2. 6 PMprojected 70-68Georgia at Georgia Tech, women's: game page
    3. 7 PMprojected 71-63Iowa State at Northern Iowa, women's: game page
    4. 7 PMprojected 63-72Penn at Saint Joseph's, women's: game page
    5. 7:30 PMprojected 62-72St John's at Oklahoma St, women's: game page
    6. 8 PMprojected 61-79Kansas at Minnesota, women's: game page
    Ole Miss next: vs Louisiana Tech, Sun, Nov 15 · 94%Ohio State next: vs FDU, Sun, Nov 15 · >99%Ole Miss: schedule and oddsOhio State: schedule and odds